Pixar May Finally Snap an 11-Year Box Office Slump With Its New Original

After more than a decade of inconsistent theatrical results, Pixar could be on the verge of reversing its box office drought with a brand-new original film. Since Toy Story debuted in 1995, Pixar has built its reputation on critically acclaimed, crowd-pleasing animated hits. Yet throughout the 2020s, the studio's theatrical momentum has slowed, with several releases struggling to connect as broadly as its earlier classics. 

Pixar's new original film Hoppers is currently tracking for a $50-$60 million domestic opening weekend, per Box Office Pro. 

If it lands at the higher end of that range, it would become the first original Pixar film to hit or surpass $60 million in its opening frame since Inside Out debuted to $90.4 million in 2015.

The closest comparison in the years since was Coco, which earned $50.8 million over its traditional three-day weekend in 2017. However, because it launched on a Wednesday ahead of Thanksgiving, its five-day domestic total reached $72.9 million, a sign of things to come for the original film that earned $796.1 million worldwide.

In fact, Coco is the most recent original Pixar film to gross half a billion dollars worldwide. Hoppers is the next in line to take a swing at $500 million, which isn't completely out of the question.

Since Coco, Pixar's original films have struggled to find similar momentum. Pandemic-era strategy shifted titles like Soul, Luca, and Turning Red directly to Disney+, eliminating any chance at traditional theatrical debuts. 

Even once Pixar returned to theaters, originals such as Elemental ($29.6 million opening) and Elio ($20.8 million opening) stumbled out of the gate domestically. While Elemental ultimately rose to be a hit in theaters, the same can't be said for Elio.

The only success Elio ultimately had was on Disney+, which isn't what Pixar wants after refocusing its attention to theaters.

Meanwhile, sequels have told a very different story. Inside Out 2 exploded to a massive $154.1 million domestic opening weekend, exponentially larger than any recent Pixar film, and ultimately climbed to $1.69 billion globally, becoming the highest-grossing Pixar release of all time.

If tracking holds, Hoppers could represent Pixar's strongest original opening in 11 years. This would be a huge win for the studio, as new ideas have not been rewarded this decade. The good news is that Hoppers reviews are almost all positive, with critics calling it one of the funniest Pixar films to date.

Regardless, it takes more than a positive reception for a new Pixar film to do well; it needs to capture the moment and prove why this animation studio is so beloved, without playing on nostalgia.

Hoppers could be the sign that audiences are once again willing to show up in force for a brand-new animated story.

Pixar's Box Office Uncertainty in 2026

Even if Hoppers doesn't reach the towering heights of past Pixar originals like Coco, Up, or Finding Nemo, simply being labeled a theatrical hit would be a meaningful victory. 

Pixar has not shied away from producing and distributing new stories over the last decade, resisting the urge to rely exclusively on established IP. Still, there's no denying that sequels carry significantly more commercial upside.

Looking ahead, Pixar's theatrical slate after Hoppers includes only one confirmed original: a uniquely animated project titled Gatto, currently set for release roughly a year later. 

If Hoppers performs well, it could restore confidence that original animated storytelling still has box office viability. Its success may even directly influence how aggressively Pixar markets a new project like Gatto.

On the franchise side, Pixar remains on far more stable ground. Toy Story 5 is slated to hit theaters this summer and is widely expected to contend for the $1 billion mark globally. Beyond that, Incredibles 3 is in development, along with a sequel to Coco, paving the way for more sure-thing box office revenue.

It may sound dramatic, but Hoppers represents something larger than a single opening weekend. In many ways, it feels like another big test to see if Pixar can still succeed with brand-new stories in theaters. 

If the movie does well, it could prove to many that Pixar can keep bringing fresh, popular stories to a new generation.