2026 is poised for a resurgence in the global box office, possibly reaching its highest total since 2019. While there was plenty of potential at the 2025 box office, it was an underwhelming year, met with shaky Marvel outcomes, and the highest-grossing film was produced in China. There are 10 films set to define the year in theaters, and it may surprise some fans that one franchise is absent from the list.
Predicting the annual box office is challenging, and it has become even more so in a post-COVID-19 world, where theatergoing has lost roughly 25% of its business since 2020. Luckily for moviegoers and fans of the fantastic, 2026 has a healthy line-up of billion-dollar babies.
Top 10 2026 Box Office Predictions
Avengers: Doomsday
- Release Date: December 18, 2026
- Distributor: Disney
- Domestic Total Prediction: $700 million
- International Total Prediction: $900 million
- Global Total Prediction: $1.6 billion
Marvel Studios is no longer the juggernaut it once was, but there's no denying that the fifth Avengers film has the highest ceiling of 2026. Marvel Studios President Kevin Feige brought back the Russo Bros. and Robert Downey Jr. to save a failed experiment: the Multiverse Saga.
Since Avengers: Endgame ($2.79 billion), Disney's Marvel films have been hindered by an avalanche of TV shows, resulting in less consistent box office results. The highs have been meteoric: Spider-Man: No Way Home ($1.9 billion), Deadpool & Wolverine ($1.3 billion), & Doctor Strange in the Multiverse of Madness ($952.2 million).
While the lows, including a record-low $206.1 million from The Marvels, have forced analysts to adjust their MCU box office projections after they were previously bulletproof in the mid-to-late 2010s. That said, Feige is pulling out all the stops to ensure Doomsday is a smash sensation.
Not only did he bring back the Russos and Downey, but the recipe that No Way Home and Deadpool & Wolverine used for global success, a heavy lean into legacy Marvel characters, is being doubled down on in 2026.
A swath of new MCU characters isn't the reason fans will be hitting theaters next Christmas; it's the addition of legacy characters like the early 2000s X-Men roster, Ryan Reynolds' Deadpool, Chris Hemsworth and Tom Hiddleston back together again, and the possibility of so much more (like Tobey Maguire's Spider-Man).
Marvel fatigue makes Doomsday an uninspiring choice to lead 2026's worldwide box office. Still, the Avengers franchise is averaging $1.9 billion per film, so this projection could ultimately prove to be a lowball.
The Super Mario Galaxy Movie
- Release Date: April 3, 2026
- Distributor: Universal Pictures
- Domestic Total Prediction: $550 million
- International Total Prediction: $750 million
- Global Total Prediction: $1.3 billion
Lightning never strikes the same place twice... unless it's Mario.
2023's The Super Mario Bros. Movie was a global sensation, earning $1.36 billion at the box office worldwide and setting a new standard for video game movie adaptations. Naturally, Nintendo, Illumination, and Universal Pictures quickly began setting their sights on a sequel, and they didn't hold back.
The Mario Galaxy gaming franchise is one of the most beloved in the series, especially in the 21st century. It's genius marketing to level up the title in that way, as it will undoubtedly portray this sequel as taking a step up. Ironically, this won't be a faithful adaptation of just Galaxy, as the sequel will draw inspiration from a variety of old and new Mario games, including Super Mario Odyssey.
Spider-Man: Brand New Day
- Release Date: July 31, 2026
- Distributor: Sony Pictures
- Domestic Total Prediction: $500 million
- International Total Prediction: $750 million
- Global Total Prediction: $1.25 billion
After years of missing the mark, including a failed Andrew Garfield reboot, the Spider-Man franchise is now a billion-dollar guarantee. Bringing the beloved hero into the MCU worked wonders for its profitability (which Sony gets most of as Disney takes a lower percentage, with shared character rights). Spider-Man: Homecoming launched the third reboot with $880.1 million, followed by the first billion-dollar movie with Far From Home, and then 2021's No Way Home broke nearly every box office record, earning $1.9 billion without releasing in China.
Brand New Day won't hit No Way Home numbers; that would be a wild prediction, as this next chapter promises to be more grounded with far fewer multiverse elements. That said, it's hard to think it'll earn less than Far From Home's $1.13 billion, especially with MCU elements like the Punisher and, more importantly, the Hulk joining the roster.
Moana
- Release Date: July 10, 2026
- Distributor: Disney
- Domestic Total Prediction: $450 million
- International Total Prediction: $650 million
- Global Total Prediction: $1.1 billion
Moana is one of the most bankable characters in Disney's catalogue, and the company knows it. After reversing course and turning its Moana Disney+ series into Moana 2, Disney was rewarded with another $1 billion franchise.
Before the sequel was even happening, a live-action remake of 2016's Moana was in the works, notably bringing Dwayne "The Rock" Johnson to life as Maui. The first teaser was recently released to mixed reactions, but don't let that fool you; the new Moana is going to be one of the biggest films of a crowded summer.
Newcomer Catherine Laga'aia took the Moana baton from Auli'i Cravalho and seems fit to be the next superstar Disney princess.
Toy Story 5
- Release Date: June 19, 2026
- Distributor: Disney
- Domestic Total Prediction: $350 million
- International Total Prediction: $550 million
- Global Total Prediction: $900 million
Bonnie's toys are back, this time fighting modern technology (a Leapfrog tablet) for the attention of their kid. Toy Story 5 (which focuses on a new main character) is set to release seven years after the fourth installment, which some fans openly questioned whether it was necessary after the original trilogy's ending. Yet, it's the highest-grossing film in the franchise ($1.07 billion).
This worldwide projection suggests that the fifth iteration will be the third-highest in the franchise, resulting in a slight decrease in interest from 2019 and a sense that this franchise is incredibly lucrative but not showing a trend of upward growth. Disney certainly wants another $1 billion earner, but at the moment, Toy Story 5 is on the outside looking in to that exclusive club.
Minions 3
- Release Date: July 1, 2026
- Distributor: Universal Pictures
- Domestic Total Prediction: $350 million
- International Total Prediction: $530 million
- Global Total Prediction: $880 million
This number for the untitled third Minions film may be the underprojection of 2026. The Despicable Me franchise has been a box office force, averaging $936.7 million per film, with the leader of the pack being the original Minions spin-off, earning $1.1 billion in 2015.
The two main reasons for not ranking Minions 3 higher are that it'll be challenging to replicate the organic "Gentle Minions" craze of July 2022, and more importantly, it's sandwiched between two monster Disney releases, coming 12 days after Toy Story 5 and 9 days before Moana.
What's the Minionese term for "delay?"
The Odyssey
- Release Date: July 17, 2026
- Distributor: Universal Pictures
- Domestic Total Prediction: $350 million
- International Total Prediction: $550 million
- Global Total Prediction: $850 million
For a lot of dedicated moviegoers, this is their most anticipated movie of the year. After having to re-prove himself with Oppenheimer, an R-rated drama that made $975.8 million and won nearly every Academy Award, Christopher Nolan is upping the stakes once again.
Homer's Odyssey is one of the oldest and well-known stories that has withstood the test of time. While a similar movie, even with a comparable cast, could've made a lot of money, nothing compares to a Nolan film in the mid-2020s.
Speaking of the cast, this might be the most loaded ensemble in modern history, including Matt Damon, Tom Holland, Anne Hathaway, Zendaya, Lupita Nyong'o, Robert Pattinson, Charlize Theron, Jon Bernthal, and Mia Goth.
In fact, some IMAX tickets went on sale a year before the release and are currently going for roughly $100 on eBay.
The only reason this project isn't above Oppenheimer is that it won't have the once-in-a-million "Barbenheimer" virality, and $850 million would still be Nolan's second-highest-grossing non-Batman movie of his career (Inception earned $826.8 million in 2010).
Michael
- Release Date: April 24, 2026
- Distributor: Lionsgate (U.S.) & Universal Pictures (International)
- Domestic Total Prediction: $250 million
- International Total Prediction: $500 million
- Global Total Prediction: $750 million
The Michael Jackson biopic, aptly titled Michael, is the biggest wild card of the 2026 box office slate. Starring the 1980s pop superstar's nephew, Jaafar Jackson, the first trailer broke records in its first 24 hours, immediately soaring above the forecasts of any box office analyst.
Potentially the first part of a two-film story, Michael is set to tell the story from Michael's childhood to the peak of his performing powers through the 1980s. This is not expected to be an overly harsh look at Jackson's life and could be a must-see movie worldwide.
The number that Michael is chasing is Bohemian Rhapsody's $903.6 million global haul, over $687 million of which came from outside the United States. Similarly, Michael is expected to reach far beyond America, which will ultimately be the reason why (or why not) this film pushes $1 billion.
Dune: Part Three
- Release Date: December 18, 2026
- Distributor: Warner Bros.
- Domestic Total Prediction: $250 million
- International Total Prediction: $425 million
- Global Total Prediction: $675 million
It's worth noting that Dune Part 3's current release date is the same as Avengers: Doomsday. In a staring contest, Warner Bros. will be the one to blink first and alter its release date, if the studio ultimately thinks that's what's best for the film. If not, get ready for "Avenger: Dunesday."
Regardless of its release, the Dune franchise is a certified smash hit, with many calling Dune: Part Two one of the best sci-fi films ever made while also raking in $715 million. The reason for not projecting a box office increase is the uncertainty surrounding the release date and the fact that the third book in Frank Herbert's Dune series, Messiah, on which the film is based, is more polarizing than the original.
That said, a cast of Timothee Chalamet, Zendaya, Florence Pugh, Jason Momoa, and Robert Pattinson is sure to put plenty of butts in seats.
Jumanji 4
- Release Date: December 11, 2026
- Distributor: Sony Pictures
- Domestic Total Prediction: $275 million
- International Total Prediction: $350 million
- Global Total Prediction: $625 million
In the late 2010s, Jumanji became one of Sony Pictures' biggest franchises out of nowhere. 2017's Jumanji: Welcome to the Jungle, a direct sequel to the 1995 original starring Robin Williams, grossed nearly $1 billion ($961.6 million).
Two years later, it wasn't as big a smash hit, but Jumanji: Next Level still earned a strong $792.4 million. A lot has changed in the theatrical landscape since then, but the fan-favorite cast remains: Dwayne "The Rock" Johnson, Jack Black, Kevin Hart, and Karen Gillan are all confirmed to return. It's also been reported that Danny DeVito and Nick Jonas are back.
The new Jumanji hits theaters a week before Avengers: Doomsday, and the seven-year gap could play into the lowest global haul since the modern sequels began. Sony will likely see anything above $600 million as a smash hit. The studio's highest-grossing film of 2025 is 28 Years Later, which has earned $150 million worldwide.
Major Omissions & Honorable Mentions
Star Wars is returning to theaters after seven years, and it's not in the top 10. The film in question is The Mandalorian and Grogu, a theatrical spin-off of Disney+'s The Mandalorian. This could be a swing and a miss, but following the mixed reaction to its first trailer, there's some worry if audiences will be truly motivated to get up and out to a theater to see the next Mando adventure.
If this were "Episode 10" of the Star Wars saga, it'd be much higher, but for now, The Mandalorian and Grogu seems much closer to Solo ($393.1 million) than Rogue One ($1 billion).
DC Studios' biggest film of 2026 also isn't cracking the top 10, especially after Superman made $616 million, so it's hard to think Supergirl will hit that mark (or even come close to it).
Other 2026 releases with major box office potential include horror franchises such as Insidious 6 and Scream 7, as well as a highly anticipated animated film like The Legend of Aang: The Last Airbender, a direct continuation of the 2000s Nickelodeon series.
