A week ahead of The Mandalorian and Grogu’s release on May 22, fresh audience data suggests excitement for Lucasfilm’s next big-screen Star Wars adventure is stronger than many expected. According to new tracking information from Screen Engine/ASI, The Mandalorian and Grogu earned 4.74% of all audience mentions in a recent entertainment interest survey, placing the film ahead of several other major 2026 releases.
The information, shared by TheWrap, asked participants an open-ended question: "What is the one upcoming entertainment release (movie, show, video game, etc.) that you are most interested in watching or playing in the next month or so?" The responses come from Screen Engine/ASI’s syndicated TractionTM survey, which polls more than 1,000 media consumers aged 13 to 64 each week.
The latest results indicate that, despite the negative response to the film’s marketing on social media, The Mandalorian and Grogu is generating substantial pre-release momentum. The participants’ responses prove that audience enthusiasm for Star Wars theatrical storytelling remains very much alive.
What makes the 4.74% figure notable is how it compares to other major 2026 theatrical releases. The Mandalorian and Grogu outperformed The Devil Wears Prada 2, which reached 4.15% of mentions in its own pre-release tracking period. The fashion-forward sequel has, as of writing, earned an impressive $445 million at the worldwide box office after only two weeks in theaters.
The Mandalorian and Grogu also surged past the Ryan Gosling sci-fi vehicle Project Hail Mary at 2.82%, the Michael Jackson biopic Michael at 2.19%, and Neve Campbell’s Scream 7, also at 2.19%.
Even Nintendo’s The Super Mario Galaxy Movie fell short of Star Wars’ much-anticipated return to movie theaters. The sequel to the $1.3 billion box-office phenomenon, The Super Mario Bros. Movie, posted a strong 3.85% and is currently the highest-grossing film of 2026, with $943 million worldwide.
These percentages reflect interest levels approximately one week before each project’s release, not necessarily their all-time audience excitement peaks. In other words, The Mandalorian and Grogu is entering theaters with stronger pre-release buzz than several other 2026 franchise titles managed in the same timeframe.
That data comes at an important moment for the nearly fifty-year-old franchise. Star Wars' theatrical future has come under heavy scrutiny following years of delays and cancellations, creative shake-ups, and shifting release schedules. Since Star Wars: Episode IX - The Rise of Skywalker debuted in 2019, Lucasfilm has focused on building its television slate on Disney+ through shows like The Mandalorian, Ahsoka, and Andor. While those series kept the brand active, questions remained about whether audiences were still eager to return to theaters for a new Star Wars movie.
The fan anticipation for The Mandalorian and Grogu appears to have answered that question. Directed by Jon Favreau, the movie continues the story established in Disney+'s The Mandalorian, with Pedro Pascal’s Din Djarin and Grogu facing off against bounty hunters and Imperial war criminals as they embark on a high-stakes rescue mission. The project was announced in January 2024 and quickly became one of Lucasfilm’s highest-priority productions.
The film also carries unique significance because it marks the first Star Wars theatrical release in nearly seven years. That alone makes it one of Disney’s most important franchise relaunches in recent memory. The strong early tracking suggests audiences have not lost interest in the film side of the franchise, despite the long theatrical hiatus.
What Does This Mean for The Mandalorian and Grogu at the Box Office?
The biggest takeaway from these numbers is not necessarily that The Mandalorian and Grogu will become a billion-dollar hit. Instead, the data shows that the core excitement surrounding Star Wars persists despite years of online discourse suggesting the franchise has lost momentum.
In many ways, The Mandalorian became the stabilizing force for Lucasfilm during an uncertain era. After Lucasfilm’s financially successful but wildly polarizing sequel trilogy, The Mandalorian introduced widely beloved characters, restored goodwill among many longtime fans, and created one of pop culture’s biggest breakout icons in Grogu, better known as Baby Yoda. Turning that corner of the franchise into the next theatrical chapter was a smart strategic move, and this tracking data suggests it may be working as intended.
It is also significant that the movie’s excitement level surpassed other projects tied to massive brands and recognizable IP. The Devil Wears Prada 2 continues the story of an iconic, quote-worthy film while also reuniting several beloved actors. Nintendo adaptations like The Super Mario Galaxy Movie have massive nostalgia appeal while also catering to younger audiences. Horror franchises like Scream traditionally generate strong pre-release engagement. Yet The Mandalorian and Grogu still led the pack.
For Disney and Lucasfilm, that is likely an encouraging sign heading into the final days of the movie’s marketing campaign. With first reactions from members of the press generally positive, the real test will come when the film opens on May 22. But for now, the data indicates that theater goers are still excited to return to a galaxy far, far away.
