A new report indicates that Lucasfilm, now no longer being run by Kathleen Kennedy, could make a major change to an upcoming Star Wars film currently in the works. The Mandalorian and Grogu hits theaters on Memorial Day weekend this year, and there is a lot riding on the spin-off after three seasons of The Mandalorian. Star Wars' return to theaters should not be taken lightly, and this new insight suggests that the performance of The Mandalorian and Grogu could significantly impact the franchise's future slate.
Insider Daniel Richtman shared on Patreon that if The Mandalorian & Grogu movie flops in theaters, the planned Heir to the Empire film would be reworked into a "limited series" instead of a major theatrical release:
If The Mandalorian & Grogu movie flops, the planned Heir to the Empire film will instead become a limited series.
While still officially untitled, Heir to the Empire is the placeholder name for Dave Filoni's crossover event, initially announced at Star Wars Celebration Europe 2023, set to "close out the interconnected stories told in The Mandalorian, The Book of Boba Fett, and Ahsoka."
Turning that culminating film, which is meant to mark the end of the New Republic era, into a series would represent a significant downgrade.
This rumor comes after fans already cooled their expectations for Filoni's film, when it was recently revealed that the project has been "put on the back burner" at Lucasfilm. It also complicates matters that Filoni is now the president and chief creative officer of Lucasfilm, overseeing all upcoming plans and projects.
Behind the scenes, the future of Star Wars could be moving away from the MandoVerse, especially with The Mandalorian and Grogu and Ahsoka Season 2 releasing this year.
The future of Star Wars could be focused on projects like Shawn Levy's Star Wars: Starfighter, set after The Rise of Skywalker. It also seems like Simon Kinberg's Star Wars trilogy could be pushed to the front of a lot of other projects at Lucasfilm, especially if a movie like The Mandalorian and Grogu fails in theaters.
How The Mandalorian & Grogu Could Flop
With the indication that Filoni's crossover film could be downgraded to a TV series if The Mandalorian and Grogu flops, the question becomes: what exactly does "flop" mean? How much does the next Star Wars film need to make to avoid being considered a commercial failure?
Of the 11 live-action Star Wars films released in theaters since 1977, only one can truly be called a flop, with the other ten standing among some of the biggest successes in Hollywood history for 20th Century Fox, and later Disney.
The sole misfire was 2018's Solo: A Star Wars Story, which earned just $393.1 million worldwide.
For The Mandalorian and Grogu, anything under $400 million would certainly be considered a failure, quickly turning Heir to the Empire into a TV series. Since Disney began making Star Wars films, Episodes VII-IX and Rogue One have all earned at least $1 billion. If The Mandalorian and Grogu hits that mark, it will be a celebration on par with the Ewoks and Rebels after the Battle of Endor.
That said, reaching that high benchmark seems unlikely, as analysts are unsure whether audiences will treat this spin-off as a must-see theatrical event like previous episodic Star Wars films.
Its Memorial Day weekend seems like a smart choice for 2026, but Disney has typically seen its biggest Star Wars success during the Christmas holiday, which is now reserved for Avengers: Doomsday.
How the film performs overseas will be a key indicator of its overall success. For reference, the last Star Wars film in theaters, The Rise of Skywalker, earned $561.8 million internationally, a number more in line with what many predict for this release.
It is surprising how much of a wild card a Star Wars theatrical release has become, especially after a seven-year hiatus, but that's the reality of 2020s movie-making.
After three seasons of Disney+ storytelling, audiences may be trained to stay home, assuming they can wait for The Mandalorian and Grogu to stream on Disney+, the entire MandoVerse, including Filoni's Heir to the Empire, could be in trouble.
If The Mandalorian and Grogu earns at least $600 million globally, Lucasfilm will face some tough but optimistic decisions about the future of Star Wars in theaters.
