Star Wars is finally returning to theaters with The Mandalorian and Grogu, set to release on May 22, 2026, marking the franchise's first theatrical entry in seven years (succeeding the poorly-received Rise of Skywalker) and following a stretch dominated by Disney+ programming. Since 2019, Lucasfilm has shifted focus to streaming, rolling out seven live-action series totaling 85 episodes. The content strategy changes by Disney, plus trouble over at Marvel Studios, have led to concerns about whether the new movie can recapture Lucasfilm's box office magic.
Entering a new streaming age to end a dominant decade in theaters, Disney used the film-centric Star Wars universe as its buoy. On the day of its launch in 2019, Disney+ debuted with the latest and greatest Star Wars project: The Mandalorian.
An instant hit, The Mandalorian went on to release two more seasons, consistently being one of the most popular shows on the streamer. Also during that time, Disney+ relied heavily on Marvel Studios to develop original content for its streaming platform, but its first series didn't land until 2021 (WandaVision).
In theory, this was the way of the future for Disney, having purchased Marvel and Star Wars in 2009 and 2012, respectively, and utilizing both excessively in theaters.
However, it's hard to deny that the Disney+ product has worsened Marvel's box office potential, and Star Wars could be next.
One 2025 MCU movie earned an 88% on Rotten Tomatoes, was led by a major Hollywood star, assembled a New Avengers team... and was one of the biggest box office letdowns in studio history.
Thunderbolts* was an anomaly of sorts, widely praised by critics and fans who saw it, but didn't catch fire in theaters. This would have never happened during the 2010s when Marvel was at the peak of its powers. Widely maligned Thor: The Dark World earned $262.2 million (over $500 million adjusted for inflation) more than Thunderbolts* at the global box office.
So the question becomes, "Why did Thunderbolts* flop?"
While many factors always go into any box office hit or success, it's hard to deny the film's deep ties to characters and content on Disney+.
If you consider Black Widow a Disney+ product (as it released day-and-date), every member of the Thunderbolts*' latest appearance was on streaming, outside of Hannah John-Kamen's Ghost.
MCU veteran Sebastian Stan was last seen as Bucky Barnes in The Falcon and the Winter Soldier (not counting his Captain America 4 cameo), where Wyatt Russell's John Walker debuted.
At the same time, Black Widow alums Florence Pugh and David Harbour played two of the most prominent roles, with Yelena having been last seen on Disney+'s Hawkeye back in 2021.
This foundation of Disney+-driven characters turned out to be flimsy.
As Star Wars is beginning to shift its content strategy back to theaters, The Mandalorian and Grogu is in great danger of not being the box office juggernaut that Lucasfilm and Disney are hoping for.
While The Mandalorian was once Disney+'s crown jewel, its third season saw a noticeable dip in quality and interest.
Adding to the uncertainty is the release strategy. Historically, Disney's Star Wars films have found the most success during December holiday runs, while the upcoming movie is slated for May. This slot infamously didn't help Solo: A Star Wars Story, which grossed $392.9 million worldwide, about one-third of the average Star Wars film during the late 2010s.
Fueled by a deep connection to Disney+ content, this mix of factors could be shaping up for a perfect storm for The Mandalorian and Grogu to flop, causing Lucasfilm to hit the panic button.
Is Star Wars Now A TV Brand?
Since the COVID-19 pandemic, Lucasfilm has retrained audiences to think of Star Wars as a television property rather than a theatrical one.
The results have been mixed, but there's no question the shift has left a lasting impact. Grogu (more widely known as Baby Yoda) quickly became a global phenomenon, and his popularity is arguably the biggest reason this new movie is being made in the first place.
On the prestige side, Andor Seasons 1 and 2 have been widely praised as some of the best Star Wars storytelling ever, rivaling the top films and animated projects alike.
Still, not every series has been a win. The Acolyte became a flashpoint for controversy, with some viewers criticizing its story and direction while others dismissed it for being too "woke."
Looking ahead, only one live-action season is currently in development, Ahsoka Season 2, which feels like a safe bet to succeed given the character's popularity and the first season's cliffhanger ending.
That leaves Lucasfilm in a transitional phase. After years of building its brand on Disney+, the franchise is now trying to reestablish itself on the big screen.
The Mandalorian and Grogu is the first true test of whether audiences will follow, and while it's already being positioned as one of 2026's biggest films, the question remains: will its Disney+ roots give it an edge, or hold it back?
