Box office projections for Sony Pictures' next Marvel Spider-Man villain spin-off look grim.
Like Gretchen Wieners trying to make “Fetch” happen, Sony Pictures has doggedly attempted to get its Spider-Man-less Spider-Man Universe off the runway for several years.
The studio had decent success with its Venom trilogy, but its other attempts at Marvel character-led movies have flopped like bowling balls.
Kraven the Hunter Heading for Box Office Trouble
According to Boxoffice Pro's December 5 tracking, Sony’s Kraven the Hunter (the longest Sony Marvel film yet) is projected to bring in approximately $20-25 million domestically in its opening weekend.
For those not well-versed in motion picture financials, an opening take-home like that for a superhero flick would result in a total North American haul of less than $85 million. For Kraven the Hunter, a film with a budget of around $110 million (plus the cost of marketing), that would constitute a notable flop.
Kraven isn’t the only non-starter in Sony's shared universe of Marvel characters that it has tried to garner interest in. Although Boxoffice Pro’s prediction is about $10 million above Madame Web, released in February, it will likely come up short compared to each entry in the entire Tom Hardy-led Venom trilogy.
It also will not beat the earnings of the much-memed Morbius, which came out in April 2022.
A list of the opening weekend domestic earnings of every Sony Marvel film since Venom can be seen below:
- Venom - $80 million
- Venom: Let There Be Carnage - $90.1 million
- Morbius - $39 million
- Madame Web - $15.3 million
- Venom: The Last Dance - $51 million
It’s worth noting that December 2024 is a jam-packed month for motion pictures, with Mufasa: The Lion King, The Lord of the Rings: The War of the Rohirrim, Sonic the Hedgehog 3, and A Complete Unknown all debuting in theaters.
Such competition leaves Kraven the Hunter with even less chance to succeed.
Could Kraven’s Failure Doom the Sony Marvel-Verse?
If Kraven the Hunter is to bomb as hard as it’s foreseen to do, is it possible that Sony and Columbia Pictures could take some time to regroup and figure out a more lucrative path for its Spider-Man Universe?
It does feel likely, particularly considering that after Kraven, Sony does not have any more officially announced live-action Marvel movies in the pipeline.
Sure, Spider-Man: Beyond the Spider-Verse is nearly guaranteed to do huge numbers from 2023’s mega-hit Spider-Man: Across the Spider-Verse. But that series is animated, and Sony would like to achieve the same success with its live-action efforts.
One might wonder, "Well, why doesn’t Sony just make Spider-Man 4 with Tobey Maguire and the Andrew Garfield-starring Amazing Spider-Man 3?" After the two actors’ attention-grabbing comeback in Spider-Man: No Way Home, viewers are primed to see more of them.
However, there have been rumors and scuttlebutt that Sony cannot use any version of Peter Parker’s Spider-Man in its own films due to its agreement with Marvel Studios, which allows Peter to appear in the MCU.
This speculation is unsubstantiated, but if true, it would kneecap Columbia Pictures using one of the most valuable movie characters.
Perhaps, in the wake of Kraven the Hunter's potential box office catastrophe, the studio might return to the drawing board and focus on hiring more competent writing talent for its Marvel films. Fans have long complained about the writing quality in these movies.
Whatever route Sony Pictures winds up traveling, what it has been doing for the past few years hasn’t worked out. The Venom trilogy, although profitable, suffered greatly from diminishing returns. And none of its other Marvel endeavors were well-received.
Time will tell if the studio corrects course, doubles down, or jettisons the live-action universe and focuses on animation instead. As for Kraven lead Aaron Taylor Johnson’s desire to fight Spider-Man, this opportunity will likely vanish if the film flops badly enough.
Sony’s Kraven the Hunter hits theaters on Friday, December 13.
