Oscars 2026 Projected Winners Reveal The Perfect Ballot (UPDATED)

The 98th Academy Awards ceremony takes place on Sunday, March 15, and with nominations locked in since January 22, the race is heating up. Polymarket, the world's largest prediction market where traders buy and sell shares on real-world outcomes using cryptocurrency, is tracking every category with millions of dollars in collective backing. The odds reflect crowd-sourced implied probabilities in real time, and they paint a remarkably clear picture of how the night is likely to unfold.

One film towers above everything else. Paul Thomas Anderson's One Battle After Another commands a dominant position across multiple major categories, making it the favorite to define this Oscar season. But Sinners, Frankenstein, KPop Demon Hunters, and Sentimental Value each carve out convincing territory of their own.

The full, perfect Oscar ballot for 2026, based on projections, is as follows. For the projected odds on each category, continue reading the article after:

• Best Picture - One Battle After Another
• Best Director - Paul Thomas Anderson
• Best Actor - Michael B. Jordan
• Best Actress - Jessie Buckley
• Best Original Screenplay - Sinners
• Best Supporting Actor -  Sean Penn
• Best Supporting Actress - Amy Madigan
• Best Cinematography - One Battle After Another
• Best Film Editing - One Battle After Another
• Best Adapted Screenplay - One Battle After Another
• Best Costume Design - Frankenstein
• Best Makeup and Hair Styling - Frankenstein
• Best Original Song - Golden (K-Pop Demon Hunters)
• Best Production Design Winner - Frankenstein
• Best Animated Feature Film - K-Pop Demon Hunters
• Best International Feature Film - Sentimental Value
• Best Sound - F1
• Best Casting - Sinners
• Best Animated Short Film - Butterfly
• Best Documentary Feature Film - The Perfect Neighbor
• Best Live-Action Short Film - Two People Exchanging Saliva
• Best Original Score - Sinners
• Best Visual Effects - Avatar: Fire and Ash
• Best Documentary Short Film - All The Empty Rooms

Every Predicted Winner for the 2026 Oscars

Best Picture — One Battle After Another

The prediction for Best Picture indicates One Battle After Another is not just winning the race; it is running away with it. Paul Thomas Anderson's adaptation commands 75% odds, making it the heaviest favorite in the Polymarket Best Picture market this awards season. Sinners trails distantly at 21%, with Hamnet at a measly 2%.

Bettors believe One Battle After Another carries the kind of maximalist, technical, and emotionally overwhelming quality that the Academy seeks to reward. If the film wins Best Director and the major craft categories as projected, it would complete one of the most dominant Oscar sweeps in recent memory.

• One Battle After Another — 75%
• Sinners — 21%
• Hammet— 2%
• Marty Supreme — 1% 
• Sentimental Value — 1% 
• Frankenstein — 1% 
• Bugonia — 1% 
• F1 — 1% 
• The Secret Agent — 1% 
• Train Dreams — 1% 

Best Director — Paul Thomas Anderson

Paul Thomas Anderson enters Oscar night at 93% odds, and the market treats this as close to a done deal as Best Director gets. Anderson's nomination comes thanks to the reception of One Battle After Another. This is his fourth Best Director nomination at the Oscars. However, he's yet to chalk up a win. 

Ryan Coogler follows Anderson with only 6% despite Sinners' amazing reception. Both are legitimate talents, but the market sees no credible path to an upset in this category.

• Paul Thomas Anderson — 93%
• Ryan Coogler — 6% 
• Chloé Zhao — 1%
• Josh Safdie — 1%
• Joachim Trier — 1%  

Best Actor — Michael B. Jordan

Michael B. Jordan leads Best Actor at 57%, which is strong, showcasing how hot the actor is following his stellar performance in Sinners. Another star on a meteoric rise this year, Timothée Chalamet, follows with 31%. Leonardo DiCaprio, who's confirmed to exist in the MCU, sits at a surprising 5%, while Ethan Hawke rakes in only 2%, making this category extremely competitive.

Michael B. Jordan is in the lead, but he has to be wary of Chalamet, who’s currently one of the most reliable awards-season performers of his generation.

• Michael B.Jordan — 57%
• Timothée Chalamet — 31%
• Wagner Moura — 6%
• Leonardo DiCaprio— 5%
• Ethan Hawke — 2% 

Best Actress — Jessie Buckley

The market for Best Actress seems to have a clear favourite, too. Jessie Buckley stands as a nearly insurmountable favorite at 97% for her work in Hamnet. Her performance became a focal point of the critical conversation since the film’s premiere, and traders are showing almost total conviction.

Rose Byrne holds a distant second place at 2%, while 2024 winner Emma Stone and international favorite Renate Reinsve sit at the margins. Unless there is a massive change in momentum during the final weeks of voting, Buckley appears poised to take home her first Oscar.

• Jessie Buckley — 97%
• Rose Byrne — 2%
• Emma Stone — 1%
• Renate Reinsve — 1%
• Kate Hudson — 1%

Best Original Screenplay — Sinners

While One Battle After Another dominates the technical fields, the writing categories see a split. Ryan Coogler’s Sinners is the heavy favorite for Best Original Screenplay with 95% odds. The film is praised for its high-concept world-building and intriguing cultural narrative, and Polymarket traders view it as the most likely winner in this category.

Timothée Chalamet’s Marty Supreme remains the primary challenger at just 2%, which is barely a competitive figure.

• Sinners — 95%
• Marty Supreme — 2%
• Sentimental Value — 1%
• It Was Just an Accident — 1%
• Blue Moon — 1%

Best Supporting Actor — Sean Penn

Sean Penn is currently the runaway leader in the Supporting Actor race with 73% odds. His amazing performance as the primary antagonist in One Battle After Another made him the sure bet of the night for many traders. Stellan Skarsgård and Delroy Lindo, as great as they were in their respective films, trail.

• Sean Penn — 73%
• Stellan Skarsgård— 15%
• Delroy Lindo — 11%
• Jacob Elordi— 1%
• Benicio Del Toro — 1% 

Best Supporting Actress — Amy Madigan

Amy Madigan's portrayal of Aunt Gladys in Weapons was every bit unsettling, and it seems she's in a good position to be rewarded for it. She leads the Best Supporting Actress position with 48% of the market. This category is much closer. Teyana Taylor, who plays Perfidia Beverly Hills in One Battle After Another, poses stiff competition as she follows Madigan closely at 31%.

• Amy Madigan — 48%
• Teyana Taylor — 31%
• Wunmi Mosaku— 17%
• Inga Ibsdotter Lilleaas— 3%
• Elle Fanning — 1%

Best Cinematography — One Battle After Another

Visual storytelling is often where the Academy shows its true hand, and the Cinematography race currently favors the beautiful sweeping shots of One Battle After Another. Holding 76% odds, it is the frontrunner in the Best Cinematography category.

Sinners sits behind with 19%, and Train Dreams rounds out the top three with 6%. While the lead for Anderson’s film is significant, there's still the chance of an upset.

• One Battle After Another — 76%
• Sinners — 19%
• Train Dreams — 6%
• Frankenstein — 1%
• Marty Supreme — 1% 

Best Film Editing — One Battle After Another

Editing is the invisible art that makes a film appealing to watch when it hits cinemas, and One Battle After Another is projected to take the trophy with 85% odds. The film’s pacing and complex narrative structure are often cited as key to its success. The market seems to support this opinion, with traders betting that the Academy will reward its technical precision in the Best Film Editing category.

The only significant challenger is F1, which commands 7% odds. Other traders also seem to hold the opinion that the film’s high-velocity race sequences could pose a threat to One Battle After Another. However, the number of them who share this belief isn’t much.

• One Battle After Another — 85%
• F1 — 7%
• Sinners — 6%
• Marty Supreme — 1%
• Sentimental Value — 1% 

Best Adapted Screenplay — One Battle After Another

Paul Thomas Anderson’s script for One Battle After Another is considered a masterclass in adaptation. With a formidable 95% probability, the market seems to strongly believe that the Academy will treat the film's writing as inseparable from its direction and overall Best Picture status. Per the numbers, the film is likely to win Best Adapted Screenplay on the awards night.

Hamnet follows at 3%, capturing the attention of voters who appreciate a more traditional literary adaptation. Despite the presence of other heavy hitters like Frankenstein and Train Dreams, the odds favour Battle After Another.

• One Battle After Another — 95%
• Hamnet — 3%
• Frankenstein — 1%
• Train Dreams — 1%
• Bugonia — 1%

Best Costume Design — Frankenstein

In the realm of aesthetics, Frankenstein is the most formidable heavyweight for Best Costume Design. Guillermo del Toro's reimagining of the classic Frankenstein story features a wardrobe that is both grotesque and gorgeous, earning it a dominant 92% chance of winning. 

Polymarket traders see this as one of the locks of the night, as few films have managed to create a more distinct visual identity this year. Sinners trails with 5%, while Hamnet and Avatar: Fire and Ash sit at the margins. 

• Frankenstein — 92%
• Sinners — 5%
• Hamnet — 2%
• Marty Supreme— 2%
• Avatar: Fire and Ash  — 1%

Best Makeup and Hair Styling — Frankenstein

Continuing its dominance in the physical crafts, Frankenstein leads the Makeup and Hair Styling category with an 93% probability. The transformative work required to bring its creatures and Victorian-era characters to life made it the clear choice for traders.

Sinners is the closest nominee, but even so, it has only 3%. The gap is so wide that any outcome other than a Frankenstein win would be considered a surprise to the market.

• Frankenstein — 93%
• Sinners — 3%
• The Smashing Machine — 1%
• Kokuho — 1%
• The Ugly Stepsister — 1% 

Best Original Song — Golden (KPop Demon Hunters)

The music categories this year are defined by the global phenomenon of KPop Demon Hunters. The track "Golden" sits at a massive 87% chance to win Best Original Song. This is undoubtedly a reflection of KPop Demon Hunters' massive cultural footprint.

"I Lied to You" from Sinners provides the only real alternative at 12%, appealing to those who prefer a more traditional narrative-driven ballad. 

• "Golden" — 87%
• "I Lied to You" — 12%
• "Train Dreams" — 1%
• "Dear Me" — 1%
• "Sweet Dreams of Joy" — 1%

Best Production Design — Frankenstein

Completing its predicted visual sweep, Frankenstein holds 92% odds for Best Production Design. The film’s intricate sets and gothic architecture have been a high point of the awards circuit, and traders are betting heavily on its victory.

Sinners managed to carve out a 6% share of the market, as its world-building also received significant praise. However, the momentum behind Frankenstein is currently too strong for the competition to overcome, leaving Marty Supreme and the others fighting for scraps.

• Frankenstein — 92%
• Sinners — 6%
• Marty Supreme — 1%
• Hamnet — 1%
• One Battle After Another — 1%

Best Animated Feature Film — KPop Demon Hunters

The market for Best Animated Feature Film is effectively closed in the eyes of many traders. KPop Demon Hunters holds a massive 93% probability, marking it as one of the most inevitable wins of the night. Its unique visual style and overwhelming popularity have left even a major franchise like Zootopia 2 (6%) in the dust.

• KPop Demon Hunters — 93%
• Zootopia 2 — 6%
• Arco — 1%
• Little Amelie or the Character of Rain —1%
• Elio — 1%

Best International Feature Film — Sentimental Value

Joachim Trier’s Sentimental Value is the current frontrunner in the Best International Feature Film race with 64% odds. The film maintains steady support throughout the season, though it faces a credible threat from The Secret Agent, which holds a decent 21%.

This suggests a high level of confidence in the Norwegian entry, but this category is notoriously unpredictable. It Was Just An Accident (6%) and The Voice of Hind Rajab (2%) are seen as long shots, but anything can happen.

• Sentimental Value — 69%
• The Secret Agent — 21%
• It Was Just An Accident — 6%
• The Voice of Hind Rajab — 2%
• Sirāt — 1% 

Best Sound — F1

The roar of the engines in F1 positioned it as the heavy favorite for Best Sound with 80% odds. The film’s immersive auditory experience is seen as its strongest technical asset, and the Academy holds a long history of rewarding high-octane racing films in this category.

Sinners follows at 16%, with traders recognizing its use of sound to build suspense. Sirāt and One Battle After Another sit at the bottom of the list, as the market expects the Academy to favor the heart-stopping sound of Formula 1 vehicles.

• F1 — 80%
• Sinners — 16%
• Sirāt — 4%
• One Battle After Another — 1%
• Frankenstein — 1%

Best Casting — Sinners

In the relatively new category of Best Casting, Sinners holds a commanding lead with 82% odds. The film’s ensemble, led by Michael B. Jordan and Delroy Lindo, is viewed as the gold standard for 2026.

One Battle After Another is just a tiny threat at 14%. But its star-studded cast is hard to ignore.

• Sinners — 82%
• One Battle After Another — 14%
• Marty Supreme — 2%
• The Secret Agent — 2%
• Hammet — 1%

Best Animated Short Film — Butterfly

The Animated Short category is led by Butterfly with 52% odds. The film is a festival darling, praised for its narrative and visual elegance. However, The Girl Who Cried Pearls remains a formidable challenger at 25%, alongside Retirement Plan (14%).

• Butterfly — 52%
• The Girl Who Cried Pearls — 25%
• Retirement Plan — 14%
• Forevergreen — 6%
• The Three Sisters — 2%

Best Documentary Feature Film — The Perfect Neighbor

The Perfect Neighbor emerged as the clear favorite for Documentary Feature, commanding 74% of the market. The film’s deep dive into a suburban scandal captivated audiences and traders alike.

Mr. Nobody Against Putin (19%) and Come See Me in the Good Light (11%) lead the pack of challengers, but the narrative surrounding The Perfect Neighbor makes it the likely winner as the ceremony approaches.

• The Perfect Neighbor — 65%
• Mr. Nobody Against Putin — 19%
• Come See Me in the Good Light  — 11%
• The Alabama Solution— 5%
• Cutting Through Rocks— 2%

Best Live-Action Short Film — Two People Exchanging Saliva

One of the most talked-about shorts of the season, Two People Exchanging Saliva, leads the Live-Action Short Film category with 42% odds. Its provocative title and equally daring direction have made it the favorite, though The Singers is breathing down its neck at 28%.

With a relatively tight spread, this category is one of the most volatile on the board. A Friend of Dorothy (24%) is no pushover either.

• Two People Exchanging Saliva — 44%
• The Singers — 28%
• A Friend of Dorothy — 24%
• Jane Austen's Period Drama  — 6%
• Butcher's Stain — 3%

Best Original Score — Sinners

The haunting, atmospheric sounds of Sinners have made it the 93% favorite to take home the Oscar for Best Original Score. Traders have consistently backed the film in this category, seeing it as a critical component of its success.

One Battle After Another holds 4% odds, but the gap suggests that voters are looking to Sinners to be favourites on the night.

• Sinners — 93%
• One Battle After Another — 4%
• Hamnet — 2%
• Frankenstein — 1%
• Bugonia — 1%

Best Visual Effects — Avatar: Fire and Ash

In what is perhaps the most predictable category of the night, Avatar: Fire and Ash stands at 92% odds. The technical innovations of the Avatar franchise continue to set the industry standard, and Polymarket traders see no credible path for an upset.

F1 and Jurassic World Rebirth sit at 3% and 2% respectively, serving as little more than footnotes in a race that James Cameron’s latest epic is believed to have already won.

• Avatar: Fire and Ash — 93%
• Sinners — 4%
• F1— 2%
• Jurassic World Rebirth  — 1%
• The Lost Bus — 1%

Best Documentary Short Film — All The Empty Rooms

Finally, the race for Best Documentary Short Film is led by All The Empty Rooms with 66% odds. Its powerful exploration of loss and memory has resonated deeply with those tracking the race.

Armed Only with a Camera (15%) and The Devil Is Busy (11%) are the primary alternatives, but with how emotionally moving All The Empty Rooms is, it is the most likely candidate to take the stage on March 15.

• All The Empty Rooms — 66%
• Armed Only with a Camera — 15%
• The Devil Is Busy — 11%
• Perfectly a Strangeness — 5%
• Children No More — 3%