Oscars 2026 Projected Winners Reveal The Perfect Ballot

The 98th Academy Awards ceremony takes place on Sunday, March 15, and with nominations locked in since January 22, the race is heating up. Polymarket, the world's largest prediction market where traders buy and sell shares on real-world outcomes using cryptocurrency, is tracking every category with millions of dollars in collective backing. The odds reflect crowd-sourced implied probabilities in real time, and they paint a remarkably clear picture of how the night is likely to unfold.

One film towers above everything else. Paul Thomas Anderson's One Battle After Another commands a dominant position across multiple major categories, making it the favorite to define this Oscar season. But Sinners, Frankenstein, KPop Demon Hunters, and Sentimental Value each carve out convincing territory of their own.

Every Predicted Winner for the 2026 Oscars

Best Picture — One Battle After Another

The prediction for Best Picture indicates One Battle After Another is not just winning the race; it is running away with it. Paul Thomas Anderson's adaptation commands 75% odds, making it the heaviest favorite in the Polymarket Best Picture market this awards season. Sinners trails distantly at 13%, with Hamnet at 6%.

With $16.7 million in trading volume, this market's confidence is at an all-time high. Bettors believe One Battle After Another carries the kind of maximalist, technical, and emotionally overwhelming quality that the Academy seeks to reward. If it wins Best Director and the major craft categories as projected, it would complete one of the most dominant Oscar sweeps in recent memory.

• One Battle After Another — 75%
• Sinners — 13%
• Hammet— 6%
• Sinners — 4.5%
• Marty Supreme — 3% 
• Sentimental Value — 1% 
• Frankenstein — 1% 
• Bugonia — 1% 
• F1 — 1% 
• The Secret Agent — 1% 
• Train Dreams — 1% 

Best Director — Paul Thomas Anderson

Paul Thomas Anderson enters Oscar night at 90% odds, and the market treats this as close to a done deal as Best Director gets. Anderson's nomination comes thanks to the reception of One Battle After Another. This is his fourth Best Director nomination at the Oscars. However, he's yet to chalk up a win. 

Ryan Coogler follows Anderson with only 8% despite Sinners' amazing reception. Both are legitimate talents, but the market sees no credible path to upset in this category.

• Paul Thomas Anderson — 90%
• Ryan Coogler — 8% 
• Chloé Zhao — 1%
• Josh Safdie — 1%
• Joachim Trier — 1%  

Best Actor — Timothee Chalamet

Timothée Chalamet leads Best Actor at 76%, which is strong, showcasing how hot Chalamet is now. Leonardo DiCaprio, who's confirmed to exist in the MCU, sits at a surprising 10%, while Michael B. Jordan rakes in only 5%, making this category less competitive than one would expect. 

Chalamet's currently one of the most reliable awards-season performers of his generation, and a win would cement his standing as one of the defining actors of his era.

• Timothée Chalamet — 76%
• Leonardo DiCaprio — 10%
• Michael B. Jordan — 5%
• Ethan Hawke — 5%
• Wagner Moura — 3% 

Best Actress — Jessie Buckley

The market for Best Actress seems to have a clear favourite, too. Jessie Buckley stands as a nearly insurmountable favorite at 90% for her work in Hamnet. Her performance became a focal point of the critical conversation since the film’s premiere, and traders are showing almost total conviction.

Rose Byrne holds a distant second place at 5%, while 2024 winner Emma Stone and international favorite Renate Reinsve sit at the margins. Unless there is a massive change in momentum during the final weeks of voting, Buckley appears poised to take home her first Oscar.

• Jessie Buckley — 90%
• Rose Byrne — 5%
• Emma Stone — 2%
• Renate Reinsve — 1%
• Kate Hudson — 1%

Best Original Screenplay — Sinners

While One Battle After Another dominates the technical fields, the writing categories see a split. Ryan Coogler’s Sinners is the heavy favorite for Best Original Screenplay with 79% odds. The film is praised for its high-concept world-building and narrative tension, and Polymarket traders view it as the most likely major award winner.

Joachim Trier’s Sentimental Value remains the primary challenger at 11%, capturing the attention of the high-brow contingent of the Academy.

• Sinners — 79%
• Sentimental Value — 11%
• Marty Supreme — 7%
• It Was Just an Accident — 2%
• Blue Moon — 1%

Best Supporting Actor — Stellan Skarsgård

Stellan Skarsgård is currently the runaway leader in the Supporting Actor race with 70% odds. His veteran status, combined with a transformative role as Gustav Borg in Sentimental Value, made him the sure bet of the night for many traders. Benicio del Toro and Tom Hardy trail significantly.

• Stellan Skarsgård — 70%
• Benicio del Toro — 18%
• Tom Hardy — 7%
• Tyler Lepley — 5%
• John Goodman — 3% 

Best Supporting Actress — Teyana Taylor

Teyana Taylor’s breakout year appears headed toward Oscar gold, as she leads with 69% of the market for her role as Perfidia Beverly Hills in One Battle After Another. This category is much closer. Taylor distanced herself from Amy Madigan, her closest competitor, who holds 18% odds. 

• Teyana Taylor — 69%
• Amy Madigan — 18%
• Inga Ibsdotter Lilleaas— 3%
• Wunmi Mosaku— 2%
• Elle Fanning — 1%

Best Cinematography — One Battle After Another

Visual storytelling is often where the Academy shows its true hand, and the Cinematography race currently favors the sweeping, high-contrast imagery of One Battle After Another. Holding 52% odds, it is the frontrunner, though this category remains one of the more competitive fields of the night.

Sinners sits closely behind with 30%, and Train Dreams rounds out the top three with 14%. While the lead for Anderson’s film is significant, this is one of the few technical categories where an upset feels mathematically plausible.

• One Battle After Another — 52%
• Sinners — 30%
• Train Dreams — 14%
• Frankenstein — 1%
• Marty Supreme — 1% 

Best Film Editing — One Battle After Another

Editing is the invisible art that defines the pulse of a film, and One Battle After Another is projected to take the trophy with 66% odds. The film’s pacing and complex narrative structure are often cited as key to its success, and the market reflects a belief that the Academy will reward its technical precision.

The only significant challenger is F1, which commands 25% odds. Traders believe the film’s high-velocity race sequences provide a strong technical counterpoint. However, with Sinners lagging at 8%, the race appears to be a two-film contest for the finish line.

• One Battle After Another — 66%
• F1 — 25%
• Sinners — 8%
• Marty Supreme — 2%
• Sentimental Value — 1% 

Best Adapted Screenplay — One Battle After Another

Paul Thomas Anderson’s script for One Battle After Another is considered a masterclass in adaptation, with a formidable 86% probability. The market suggests that the Academy will treat the film's writing as inseparable from its direction and overall Best Picture status.

Hamnet follows at 10%, capturing the attention of voters who appreciate a more traditional literary adaptation. Despite the presence of other heavy hitters like Frankenstein and Train Dreams, the odds suggest a near-consensus that this is Anderson’s year to finally secure a writing win.

• One Battle After Another — 86%
• Hamnet — 10%
• Frankenstein — 1%
• Train Dreams — 1%
• Bugonia — 1%

Best Costume Design — Frankenstein

In the realm of aesthetics, Frankenstein is the undisputed heavyweight. Guillermo del Toro's reimagining of the classic story features a wardrobe that is both grotesque and gorgeous, earning it a dominant 89% chance of winning. 

Polymarket traders see this as one of the locks of the night, as few films have managed to create a more distinct visual identity this year. Sinners trails with 8%, while Hamnet and Avatar: Fire and Ash sit at the margins. 

• Frankenstein — 89%
• Sinners — 8%
• Hamnet — 1%
• Avatar: Fire and Ash — 1%
• Marty Supreme — 1%

Best Makeup and Hair Styling — Frankenstein

Continuing its dominance in the physical crafts, Frankenstein leads the Makeup and Hair Styling category with an 84% probability. The transformative work required to bring its creatures and Victorian-era characters to life made it the clear choice for traders.

Sinners is the only other nominee with a double-digit presence at 10%, but the gap is wide enough that any outcome other than a Frankenstein win would be considered a surprise to the market.

• Frankenstein — 84%
• Sinners — 10%
• The Smashing Machine — 1%
• Kokuho — 1%
• The Ugly Stepsister — 1% 

Best Original Song — Golden (KPop Demon Hunters)

The music categories this year are defined by the global phenomenon of KPop Demon Hunters. The track "Golden" sits at a massive 90% chance to win, reflecting its massive cultural footprint and the Academy's recent trend of embracing popular, high-energy musical moments.

"I Lied to You" from Sinners provides the only real alternative at 10%, appealing to those who prefer a more traditional narrative-driven ballad. Still, with nearly $300,000 in volume behind this market, Golden's conviction is absolute.

• "Golden" — 90%
• "I Lied to You" — 10%
• "Train Dreams" — 1%
• "Dear Me" — 1%
• "Sweet Dreams of Joy" — 1%

Best Production Design — Frankenstein

Completing its predicted visual sweep, Frankenstein holds 77% odds for Best Production Design. The film’s intricate sets and gothic architecture have been a high point of the awards circuit, and traders are betting heavily on its victory.

Sinners managed to carve out a 14% share of the market, as its world-building also received significant praise. However, the momentum behind Frankenstein is currently too strong for the competition to overcome, leaving Marty Supreme and the others fighting for scraps.

• Frankenstein — 77%
• Sinners — 14%
• Marty Supreme — 4%
• Hamnet — 3%
• One Battle After Another — 1%

Best Animated Feature Film — KPop Demon Hunters

The market for Animated Feature is effectively closed in the eyes of many traders. KPop Demon Hunters holds a massive 93% probability, marking it as one of the most inevitable wins of the night. Its unique visual style and overwhelming popularity have left even a major franchise like Zootopia 2 (6%) in the dust.

• KPop Demon Hunters — 93%
• Zootopia 2 — 6%
• Arco — 1%
• Little Amelie or the Character of Rain —1%
• Elio — 1%

Best International Feature Film — Sentimental Value

Joachim Trier’s Sentimental Value is the current frontrunner in the International race with 64% odds. The film maintained steady support throughout the season, though it faces a credible threat from The Secret Agent, which holds a solid 31%.

This suggests a high level of confidence in the Norwegian entry, but this category is notoriously unpredictable. It Was Just An Accident (3%) and The Voice of Hind Rajab (2%) are seen as long shots, but anything can happen.

• Sentimental Value — 64%
• The Secret Agent — 31%
• It Was Just An Accident — 5%
• The Voice of Hind Rajab — 3%
• Sirāt — 1% 

Best Sound — F1

The roar of the engines in F1 positioned it as the heavy favorite for Best Sound with 78% odds. The film’s immersive auditory experience is seen as its strongest technical asset, and the Academy holds a long history of rewarding high-octane racing films in this category.

Sinners follows at 13%, with traders recognizing its use of sound to build suspense. Sirāt and One Battle After Another sit at the bottom of the list, as the market expects the Academy to favor the sheer power and scale of F1.

• F1 — 78%
• Sinners — 15%
• Sirāt — 4%
• One Battle After Another — 1%
• Frankenstein — 1%

Best Casting — Sinners

In the relatively new category of Best Casting, Sinners holds a commanding lead with 65% odds. The film’s ensemble, led by Michael B. Jordan and Delroy Lindo, is viewed as the gold standard for 2026.

One Battle After Another remains a threat at 26%, as its star-studded cast is hard to ignore, and Marty Supreme holds 9%. 

• Sinners — 65%
• One Battle After Another — 25%
• Marty Supreme — 9%
• The Secret Agent — 3%
• Hammet — 2%

Best Animated Short Film — Butterfly

The Animated Short category is led by Butterfly with 52% odds. The film is a festival darling, praised for its narrative and visual elegance. However, The Girl Who Cried Pearls remains a formidable challenger at 24%, alongside Retirement Plan (15%).

• Butterfly — 52%
• The Girl Who Cried Pearls — 24%
• Retirement Plan — 15%
• Forevergreen — 10%
• The Three Sisters — 4%

Best Documentary Feature Film — The Perfect Neighbor

The Perfect Neighbor emerged as the clear favorite for Documentary Feature, commanding 74% of the market. The film’s deep dive into a suburban scandal captivated audiences and traders alike.

Come See Me in the Good Light (12%) and Mr. Nobody Against Putin (5%) lead the pack of challengers, but the narrative surrounding The Perfect Neighbor feels increasingly undeniable as the ceremony approaches.

• The Perfect Neighbor — 74%
• Come See Me in the Good Light — 12%
• Cutting Through Rocks — 7%
• Mr. Nobody Against Putin — 6%
• The Alabama Solution — 5%

Best Live-Action Short Film — Two People Exchanging Saliva

One of the most talked-about shorts of the season, Two People Exchanging Saliva, leads the Live-Action Short Film category with 44% odds. Its provocative title and equally daring direction have made it the favorite, though The Singers is breathing down its neck at 36%.

With a relatively tight spread, this category is one of the most volatile on the board. A Friend of Dorothy (13%) is no pushover either.

• Two People Exchanging Saliva — 44%
• The Singers — 36%
• A Friend of Dorothy — 14%
• Butcher's Stain — 5%
• Jane Austen's Period Drama — 5%

Best Original Score — Sinners

The haunting, atmospheric sounds of Sinners have made it the 85% favorite to take home the Oscar for Best Original Score. Traders have consistently backed the film in this category, seeing it as a critical component of its success.

One Battle After Another holds 10% odds, but the gap suggests that voters are looking to Sinners to provide the night's most memorable musical landscape.

• Sinners — 85%
• One Battle After Another — 10%
• Bugonia — 1%
• Frankenstein — 1%
• Hamnet — 1%

Best Visual Effects — Avatar: Fire and Ash

In what is perhaps the most predictable category of the night, Avatar: Fire and Ash stands at 92% odds. The technical innovations of the Avatar franchise continue to set the industry standard, and Polymarket traders see no credible path for an upset.

F1 and Jurassic World Rebirth sit at 3% and 2% respectively, serving as little more than footnotes in a race that James Cameron’s latest epic is believed to have already won.

• Avatar: Fire and Ash — 92%
• F1 — 3%
• Jurassic World Rebirth — 2%
• Sinners — 1%
• The Lost Bus — 1%

Best Documentary Short Film — All The Empty Rooms

Finally, the race for Best Documentary Short is led by All The Empty Rooms with 65% odds. Its powerful exploration of loss and memory has resonated deeply with those tracking the race.

Armed Only with a Camera (18%) and The Devil Is Busy (8%) are the primary alternatives, but the emotional weight of All The Empty Rooms makes it the most likely candidate to take the stage on March 15.

• All The Empty Rooms — 63%
• Armed Only with a Camera — 18%
• The Devil Is Busy — 8%
• Perfectly a Strangeness — 7%
• Children No More — 1%

The full, perfect Oscar ballot for 2026, based on projections, is as follows:

• Best Picture - One Battle After Another
• Best Director - Paul Thomas Anderson
• Best Actor - Timothée Chalamet
• Best Actress - Jessie Buckley
• Best Original Screenplay - Sinners
• Best Supporting Actor - Stellan Skarsgard
• Best Supporting Actress - Teyana Taylor
• Best Cinematography - One Battle After Another
• Best Film Editing - One Battle After Another
• Best Adapted Screenplay - One Battle After Another
• Best Costume Design - Frankenstein
• Best Makeup and Hair Styling - Frankenstein
• Best Original Song - Golden (K-Pop Demon Hunters)
• Best Production Design Winner - Frankenstein
• Best Animated Feature Film - K-Pop Demon Hunters
• Best International Feature Film - Sentimental Value
• Best Sound - F1
• Best Casting - Sinners
• Best Animated Short Film - Butterfly
• Best Documentary Feature Film - The Perfect Neighbor
• Best Live-Action Short Film - Two People Exchanging Saliva
• Best Original Score - Sinners
• Best Visual Effects - Avatar: Fire and Ash
• Best Documentary Short Film - All The Empty Rooms