Captain Marvel 2 is set to perform significantly worse than its 2019 predecessor, as indicated by a recent report of poor pre-sale tickets.
The second Captain Marvel film in the MCU, titled The Marvels, isn't trending in the right direction. Recent box office tracking projections have been low for the upcoming film starring Brie Larson, Iman Vellani, and Teyonah Parris.
The Marvels is currently projected to earn between $50 million - $75 million domestically over its opening weekend after Captain Marvel opened to $153.4 million over four years ago, the 11th-best opening in MCU history.
Fast forward to 2023, and The Marvels hype is low among fans mere weeks ahead of its own debut weekend.
The Marvels' Pre-Sale Tickets Worst in New Era
According to box office insider Luiz Fernando, The Marvels' pre-sale tickets have been the weakest for any MCU film in the post-Covid era, suggesting a potential lack of interest from general audiences in this new installment.
This would equate to The Marvels having lower presales than any MCU film since, at the latest, 2019's Spider-Man: Far From Home. This may come as a surprise as 2021's Eternals was a box office disappointment by Marvel standards, drawing in only $71.3 million opening weekend.
Captain Marvel 2 appears to be breaking a unique MCU streak of generating massive, fan-crazed excitement from opening weekend, with the possibility of a box office plummet if it's received poorly.
For example, Ant-Man and The Wasp: Quantumania opened large with
$106.1 million domestically, but following lukewarm reviews and a lackluster fan reaction it only totaled $214.5 million.
A few weeks before its release it appears The Marvels would be lucky to hit $200 million total at the domestic box office.
Is The Marvels Doomed to Flop?
A harsh reality Marvel Studios may quickly face is that the company's brand name might no longer draw the same number of audiences as it did during the Infinity Saga.
Two MCU films since 2019 that have been promoted as can't-miss events ultimately let a majority of fans down, those being Doctor Strange in the Multiverse of Madness and Ant-Man and The Wasp: Quantumania.
These two generalized disappointments may have potential audience members of The Marvels, those who have been MCU fans for over a decade, hesitant to get excited over the next crossover event.
The Marvels also has a strong reliance on three separate Disney+ series: WandaVision, Ms. Marvel, and Secret Invasion. It could be a potential deterrent if fans feel like they need to complete their MCU series homework before heading out to theaters on November 10.
On top of that is the fact that Captain Marvel was deemed an incredible box office success, but not necessarily a favorite among fans or critics. Due to that film being released in between Avengers: Infinity War and Endgame (plus the fact that it was the first MCU female-led solo movie), its situation dictated a lot of its monetary success.
Conversely, The Marvels is being released at an objectively poor time in real life and within the MCU. The Screen Actors Guild (SAG-AFTRA) strike is still in effect, meaning none of the stars can help promote the film.
Then narratively there isn't a clear direction for what this story will mean for the greater MCU. Carol Danvers and Captain Marvel's prequel origin story before the events of Endgame was a huge curiosity back in 2019.
Marvel Studios created the most successful franchise in Hollywood history, but will long-time fans show up to see The Marvels when it hits theaters on November 10?
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