Brie Larson's first Captain Marvel film was a certified box office hit, earning over $1.1 billion worldwide (via Box Office Pro), making it the first female-led superhero movie to cross the $1 billion mark.
According to reports, The Marvels is one of the MCU's most expensive movies ever, so the road to profitability will be harder than it was for the 2019 original.
First Captain Marvel 2 Box Office Projections Revealed
New reporting from experts revealed what could be an abysmal box office run for the upcoming Captain Marvel 2.
According to Box Office Pros, The Marvels is projected to earn between $50 million - $75 million domestically over its opening weekend and between $121 million - $189 million in total domestically.
This is a far cry from the first Captain Marvel film, which was estimated to make over $100 million in its opening weekend domestically, with some experts offering even more enthusiastic projections of upward of $120 million (via Variety)
Captain Marvel famously outdid these estimates, making more than $150 million in its domestic opening weekend.
This $50-$75 million figure is roughly half of what was estimated for Warner Bros. The Flash, which after middling box office projections would go on to become one of the biggest financial failures in studio history.
Compared to some of Marvel Studios' other recent films, this first The Marvels projection does not look good.
Should The Marvels hit the low end of its opening projections, it would become the the new record-holder for the MCU's lowest domestic opening weekend, taking the unenviable spot from 2008's The Incredible Hulk, which opened to $55 million in the U.S. during the franchise's birth year.
The high points of these recent projections came with 2022's Black Panther: Wakanda Forever (projected to earn $180 million in its opening) and Doctor Strange in the Multiverse of Madness ($165 million).
For context here are some recent MCU opening weekends to compare to these projections:
- Guardians of the Galaxy Vol. 3: $118.4 million
- Ant-Man and The Wasp: Quantumania: $104 million
- Black Panther: Wakanda Forever: $181 million
- Thor: Love and Thunder: $144 million
- Doctor Strange in the Multiverse of Madness: $187 million
How Will The Marvels Fare at the Box Office?
While these numbers are simply projections, things are not looking good for The Marvels mere weeks before it kicks off its box office run.
Given the success of the first film, some experts have predicted the film could earn as much as $750 million at the worldwide box office, an achievement in this post-pandemic era.
If this prediction for the movie does come to pass, even getting over $300 million will be a herculean task.
Some were skeptical of Captain Marvel 2's box office potential when it was initially set to open one week after Denis Villeneuve's Dune: Part Two. But with that film getting delayed out of 2023, the runway was seemingly cleared for The Marvels to capitalize.
Everything has been set in place for the movie to succeed, it is just a matter of if it will grab hold of the opportunity.
A huge factor in The Marvels' long-term success will be if it pans out critically. Strong word of mouth is what makes box office juggernauts these days.
Movies like Ant-Man and The Wasp: Quantumania opened to pretty respectable numbers, only to completely crater due to poor word of mouth.
The Marvels comes to theaters worldwide on Friday, November 10.