As Ant-Man 3's release date inches ever closer, the first box office projections for the Paul Rudd-led threequel have been revealed.
Ant-Man and The Wasp: Quantumania is mere weeks away from kicking off Marvel Studios' 2023, and - perhaps more importantly - the MCU's Phase 5.
After two smaller "palate cleanser" Ant-Man films, Quantumania promises to be the biggest solo adventure yet for Rudd's pint-sized Marvel hero. This time around the Ant-Family will go toe-to-toe with the MCU's next Thanos-level threat in Jonathan Majors' Kang the Conqueror, so his inclusion alone is sure to make this movie feel bigger than either of its two predecessors.
And along with the sort of epic Multiversal journey promised in Ant-Man 3, there are just as epic expectations from both Marvel Studios and industry insiders.
Ant-Man 3's First Box Office Projections
The first box office projections for Ant-Man and The Wasp: Quantumania tease quite the payday for the Marvel Studios threequel if the analysts are correct.
According to Box Office Pro, Ant-Man 3 is expected to rake in between $96 million and $131 million over its 3-day opening weekend domestically, while making between $249 million and $347 million as a domestic box office total.
This would make the upcoming threequel the first film of 2023 to cross that sought-after $100 million opening weekend mark.
At the higher end of these projections, this would be a nearly 130% jump compared to Ant-Man's 2015 opening weekend ($57,225,526), and about 70% more than Ant-Man and the Wasp's opening ($75,812,205).
These numbers are about in line with other MCU threequels, with a similar jump happening from the opening of Thor: The Dark World ($85,737,841) to Thor: Ragnarok ($122,744,989).
Ragnarok also brought in $315,058,289 as a domestic total across its theatrical run, which is close to the $347,000,000 number at which Box Office Pro sees Quantumania topping out.
The Thor franchise could be the best facsimile for the Ant-Man films.
Iron Man 3 had a domestic opening total of $174,144,585 which was only 130% of Iron Man 2's opening. And the defacto Avengers film, Captain America: Civil War opened to $179,139,142, which was 188% more than Captain America: The Winter Soldier.
What Will Quantumania Do at the Box Office?
It is near-impossible to predict exactly what the box office totals will look like for any particular film, but there are some trends one can look at to best guess where things will land.
Just look at Black Panther: Wakanda Forever. The film was projected to make $435,000,000, and it ended up surpassing those projections with a more than $450,000,000 haul. So the skeptics of these numbers may want to think twice before voicing their doubt.
While the Ant-Man films have never been the box office juggernauts other MCU films are, the jump from Ant-Man and The Wasp to Quantumania will likely be a big one.
Yes, movie theaters are in a completely different place from where they were when Thor: Ragnarok came out in 2017, but the leap from sequel to threequel could mimic what happened with Marvel Studios' God of Thunder.
Ragnarok was a change for the Thor franchise, just like Quantumania will be for Ant-Man. And Ragnarok rode the high it did without the ability to lean on a Kang-sized debut the way Ant-Man 3 will.
So yes, these projections as charting a course through uncharted territory for Paul Rudd's Scott Lang and team, but there is some justification for the number to be as high as they are.
Ant-Man and The Wasp: Quantumania hits theaters on Friday, February 17.
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