New Data Reveals Black Panther 2's Expected Box Office vs. Marvel’s Other Movies

Black Panther Wakanda Forever Marvel Cinematic Universe
By David Thompson Posted:

One of Marvel's most highly anticipated sequels releases to theaters in less than a month as Black Panther: Wakanda Forever finalizes the MCU's Phase 4 slate and continues the legacy of the late Chadwick Boseman.

Along with the original Black Panther cast stepping into the forefront, they will be joined by some new faces as Namor the Sub-Mariner will be introduced to the MCU, as well as Riri Williams, aka Ironheart

Returning to Black Panther 2 from the 2018 record-breaker are Shuri (Letitia Wright), Ramonda (Angela Bassett), Nakia (Lupita Nyong'o), Okoye (Danai Gurira), M'Baku (Winston Duke), and Everett K. Ross (Martin Freeman).

As the hype builds, so does the expectation for the film's box office performance, especially as the first Black Panther held the record for the MCU's highest-performing solo flick until Spider-Man: No Way Home shattered past it. 

A previous projection had Wakanda Forever grossing $277 million less than 2018's predecessor. Now, new tracking indicates that Black Panther 2 may reach higher box office success than previously predicted.

Black Panther 2 Tracking Huge Box Office Haul

Marvel Studios, Avengers, Black Panther
Marvel

According to Box Office Pro's box office tracking report, Black Panther: Wakanda Forever is on pace to earn between $180 million and $225 million in its opening weekend, with its final domestic total estimated to land between $445 million and $590 million.

The current opening weekend record at the November domestic box office is $158.1 million, earned by 2013's The Hunger Games: Catching Fire. Wakanda Forever looks to smash that record and possibly earn more than its predecessor's $202 million, becoming one of Marvel's most successful openings of all time.

Here's a look at the top 10 MCU opening weekends, likely soon to be joined by Black Panther 2:

  1. Avengers: Endgame - $357.1 million
  2. Spider-Man: No Way Home - $260.1 million
  3. Avengers: Infinity War - $257.7 million
  4. The Avengers - $207.4 million
  5. Black Panther - $202 million
  6. Avengers: Age of Ultron - $191.3 million
  7. Doctor Strange in the Multiverse of Madness - $187.4 million
  8. Captain America: Civil War - $179 million
  9. Iron Man 3 - $174M
  10. Captain Marvel - $153M

Wakanda Forever will also likely become one of the highest-grossing total domestic earners, but will not reach the heights of 2018's original. Black Panther earned an incredible $700 million domestically, the sixth most of all time.

Marvel Studios' November release will also be the last of Phase 4. The MCU's fourth phase has been met with varying results (due mainly to the pandemic) but Wakanda Forever is tracking to earn one of its largest hauls.

Here's a deeper look into how Phase 4 has gone at the box office, in order of release:

Opening weekend:

  • Black Widow - $80.4 million
  • Shang-Chi and the Legend of the Ten Rings - $75.4 million
  • Eternals - $71.3 million
  • Spider-Man: No Way Home - $260.1 million
  • Doctor Strange in the Multiverse of Madness - $187.4 million
  • Thor: Love and Thunder - $144.2 million

Domestic box office:

  • Black Widow - $183.7 million
  • Shang-Chi and the Legend of the Ten Rings - $224.5 million
  • Eternals - $164.9 million
  • Spider-Man: No Way Home - $814 million
  • Doctor Strange in the Multiverse of Madness - $411.3 million
  • Thor: Love and Thunder - $343.3 million

Excluding Spider-Man: No Way Home (considering Sony Pictures received most of its box office earnings), the Black Panther sequel could become Marvel Studios/Disney's most profitable Phase 4 film.

Will Wakanda Forever Make More than The Avengers?

Director Ryan Coogler's second MCU film is set to generate incredible earnings for the studio. Despite Boseman's tragic death, Wakanda Forever remains a favorite to be one of Marvel's highest earners ever.

It'd be a major win for the studio if this sequel grossed more than Black Panther's $202 million opening without the original star who kickstarted it all.

Surpassing The Avengers' $207.4 million mark would indicate that this franchise still holds a lot of interest in the public eye. In 2018, Marvel fans rushed out to see the newest comic book movie, but many general audience members took a trip to a theater to see the first solo Black superhero movie in the mainstream MCU.

Once again it appears that more than just devoted Marvel fans will be present for another Black Panther film this November. 

A few factors that may work against the film's total grosses are the staggering 2-hour and 41-minute length, along with the possibility of a quality dip from the first after a difficult production filled with pauses and delays due to COVID-19 and a serious injury to Letitia Wright.

However, the sky is the limit as the box office has gone cold since August began and Wakanda Forever may be many audience members' first time back in theaters since the summer blockbusters have come to an end.

Contribute to Black Panther: Wakanda Forever's box office when it exclusively releases in theaters on Friday, November 11.