Reality may be sinking in at Lucasfilm after The Mandalorian & Grogu's latest box-office projects point toward a letdown. Star Wars is only one month away from returning to theaters with The Mandalorian & Grogu, a big-screen sequel to the Pedro Pascal-led streaming series. The sci-fi saga has been relegated to Disney+ since The Rise of Skywalker and the COVID-19 pandemic, with Lucasfilm trying and failing to get many new movies off the ground. Concern has been building for The Mandalorian & Grogu's box office performance, as interest appears low and Lucasfilm's marketing campaign has left much to be desired.
According to a report from Box Office Theory, The Mandalorian & Grogu is tracking to gross just $71 million in its three-day opening weekend (May 22-24). The projection would hit a new low for the galaxy far, far away under Disney, coming in $13 million below the previous unfortunate record holder, Solo: A Star Wars Story, and $106 million lower than the franchise's last movie, The Rise of Skywalker:
- Episode VII: The Force Awakens - $247.97 million
- Rogue One: A Star Wars Story - $155.08 million
- Episode VIII: The Last Jedi - $220.01 million
- Solo: A Star Wars Story - $84.42 million
- Episode IV: The Rise of Skywalker - $177.38 million
To compare to other recent Disney blockbusters with a similar target audience, that figure is lower than all of the MCU's 2025 releases, including Captain America: Brave New World ($88.5 million), The Fantastic Four: First Steps ($118 million), and, the most comparable of the trio, Thunderbolts* ($76 million).
The Mandalorian & Grogu has more in common with Thunderbolts* than meets the eye, as, in the same way that the Star Wars flick is a sequel to a Disney+ series, the MCU flop was closely linked to streaming projects like The Falcon and the Winter Soldier and Hawkeye, which does raise some alarm bells.
Unfortunately, Thunderbolts* proved to be a box office bomb, and The Mandalorian & Grogu is in danger of going the same way, especially if word-of-mouth doesn't prove to be as strong as hoped when critic and fan reactions emerged in May. Thunderbolts* went on to gross $382.43 million worldwide, not far off the $392.92 million reached by Solo: A Star Wars Story.
How The Mandalorian & Grogu Flopping Would Change Star Wars (And Hollywood)
Previous reports claimed that Dave Filoni's MandoVerse crossover movie will be canceled if The Mandalorian & Grogu flops, shifting the Heir to the Empire adaptation to Disney+ for a limited series. The big-screen event was announced at Star Wars Celebration 2023, but updates have been scarce since.
In general, the fate of the MandoVerse has never looked so uncertain, as it seems no Disney+ series is in development beyond Ahsoka Season 2. The multi-show tale has lost much of its momentum since The Mandalorian Season 3 disappointed many in 2023, and it may be too late for 2026's new releases to reignite interest.
It's tough to imagine a world where Lucasfilm would ever leave the MandoVerse storyline truly unfinished, even if both The Mandalorian & Grogu and Ahsoka's sophomore season were a letdown. However, it's entirely possible, in that case, that the studio could rush toward the Heir to the Empire conclusion.
The Mandalorian & Grogu's tracking will only further concerns as to whether it was the right movie to end Star Wars' seven-year theatrical drought. As fans seek truly new tales in the galaxy far, far away, perhaps next year's Starfighter, starring Ryan Gosling, may be what the franchise actually needs to revive interest.
There's no doubt that The Mandalorian sequel's potentially disappointing box-office performance could have repercussions that reverberate across Hollywood. To some extent, it would call into question the entire notion of whether truly connecting movie and TV is viable, or if the target audiences are too different.
