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Spider-Man: No Way Home: New Data Indicates If Opening Will Beat Avengers & Black Panther

Spider-Man No Way Home, Avengers, Black Panther
By David Thompson

Spider-Man: No Way Home will soon be exclusively in theaters worldwide. The MCU threequel starring Tom Holland, Zendaya, and Jamie Foxx sets the stage for madness within the Multiverse. The trailers so far have given fans a look at Peter Parker being pinned as a murderer after the post-credits scene of Spider-Man: Far From Home. 

Parker goes to none other than his old Avenging buddy Doctor Strange to try and fix this new identity crisis. After the spell goes awry, familiar villains from different Spider-Verses begin to appear in the MCU.

Amongst those villains, the return of Willem Dafoe as the Green Goblin, Alfred Molina as Doc Ock, and the rumored appearances of Tobey Maguire and Andrew Garfield make No Way Home the most anticipated film since 2019's Avengers: Endgame. Endgame historically grossed nearly $2.8 billion at the worldwide box office.

On November 29, the tickets for Spider-Man: No Way Home went on sale, and several sites crashed after a flood of fans attempted to secure opening night tickets. AMC, Regal, Atom, and Fandango all weren't operational soon after the tickets went live.

Now, a new box office prediction for the Tom Holland-led threequel has emerged online. 

Spider-Man: No Way Home on Track for Massive Opening Weekend

Spider-Man Money
Marvel

Boxoffice Pro released its latest forecast and tracking report for films releasing in December. Shawn Robbins predicted that No Way Home will gross $190-250 million at the domestic box office opening weekend. Robbins previously predicted the Marvel juggernaut would make $135-185 million opening weekend. There is quickly becoming no doubt No Way Home will be the highest-grossing film of 2021.

The top domestic box office totals so far this year are Venom: Let Their Be Carnage, Black Widow, and Shang-Chi and the Legend of the Ten Rings. All three of the Marvel films made $90 million, $80 million, and $75 million respectively. 

No Way Home will be an outlier in 2021 but could become competitive with the top-earning MCU movies of all time. This prediction would indicate that No Way Home will have at least a top-five opening weekend performance at the domestic box office amongst MCU films. 

It is looking more likely than ever that it will beat out Avengers: Age of Ultron's $191 million and could easily outperform Black Panther ($202 million) and The Avengers ($207 million). 

If the Holland-let Spidey film reaches the top end of this prediction, No Way Home can compete with the likes of Avengers: Infinity War, which made $257 million at the domestic opening box office. For now, Avengers: Endgame's $357 million appears safe to retain its title as top dog in the MCU. 

What Happened to Movie Theaters Dying?

The pandemic doesn't appear to be stopping fans from wanting anything more than to pack out thousands of theaters across North America on December 16 and 17. Any conservative predictions have gone to the wayside after the avalanche of ticket sales on November 29. 

The hype around No Way Home couldn't be higher at the moment, leading to these advance ticket performances and opening box office predictions being so high. However, it is interesting to consider how it will perform internationally and the longevity of its box office performance in North America and beyond.

There is little to no doubt that No Way Home will be an instant hit, blow everything else in 2021 out of the water, and compete with the best of Marvel's performers. The trickier question almost two years into the global pandemic is how long it can keep up with the likelihood of a historic opening weekend. 

Boxoffice Pro also predicts that Sony Pictures and Marvel Studios' latest joint project will gross $520-$690 million total at the domestic box office. That would also make it a top-five MCU performer at the domestic box office, competing with the likes of The Avengers ($623.3 million) and Avengers: Infinity War ($678.8 million). 

This year has generally been a struggle for international box office markets for American films. F9 and No Time to Die have been the only two that have lived up to their potential. The latter broke all-time records in the U.K.

No Way Home has a few variables going for it as it relates to the international and total worldwide box office. Firstly, it is not going to a streaming service after the new normal 45-day theater window. This film will play in theaters for an incredibly long time compared to most other big-budget films this year. 

Another potential advantage is the elusive Chinese box office, which became the top box office in 2020, but major Marvel films like Eternals, Black Widow, Shang-Chi, and Let Their Be Carnage never opened in the country.

While no formal release date is set, No Way Home will likely be the first Phase 4 film to open to that market. 2019's Far From Home made nearly $200 million in China and Sony's Venom made $269 million, over $50 million more than in North America.

The wide release of No Way Home is setting itself up to be the stand-out performance in 2021 and the biggest movie since 2019's Avengers: Endgame.

Will it hit $1 billion at the worldwide box office? Fans can begin contributing when Spider-Man: No Way Home hits theaters on December 17, 2021.


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