Spider-Man: No Way Home: New Projections Set Aim for Record-Breaking Box Office

Spider-Man: No Way Home Tobey Maguire, Andrew Garfield
By Richard Nebens

Marvel Studios and Sony Pictures are now in the final stages of preparation for arguably the biggest solo superhero movie ever made, with Spider-Man: No Way Home nearly ready to release. Now deep into the promotional tour, fans will be keeping a close eye on all things Spider-Man before Tom Holland's threequel leaves its mark on the MCU.

The movie's first trailer from August gave just a tease of just how big this adventure will be with the first look at Alfred Molina's Doc Ock and a small look into how Peter deals with his identity crisis; it soon became the most-viewed trailer in history during its first 24 hours by a wide margin.

While no view numbers have yet been revealed for the second No Way Home trailer, it's abundantly clear that it sent discussion about the new film's story into hyperdrive. With the first signs of the Multiverse breaking and full looks at five villains from past Spider-Man outings, the possibilities for this movie's scale are absolutely endless.

With tickets for Spider-Man: No Way Home going on sale at the end of November, fans are already wondering just how successful the MCU's 27th film will be at the global box office, even in a tough box office year across the industry. Thanks to early predictions, all signs are pointing to what should be the biggest movie of 2021 financially.

No Way Home's Early Box Office Predictions

Spider-Man: No Way Home
Marvel

Box Office Pro revealed their prediction for Spider-Man: No Way Home's opening weekend at the domestic and worldwide box office.

A $135 million to $185 million opening in the U.S. is expected by the outlet's analysts, a considerably wide range which will narrow down as weeks get closer. The site is also projecting No Way Home's total domestic haul to land between $375 million and $525 million.

Venom: Let There Be Carnage came in with a $90 million opening weekend domestically, the best to the sequel's highly successful Fall run. Marvel Studios comes in with the next three top earners, including Black Widow at $80 million (from Disney+ day-and-date), Shang-Chi and the Legend of the Ten Rings at $75 million, and Eternals at $71 million.

Box Office Pro also shared some pros and cons that will help and hurt No Way Home's earnings, including...

PROS:

  • The movie will release exclusively in theaters with IMAX and other Premium Large Format screens available to use. It's also going to be the main event during the holiday season, and potentially the biggest outing since 2019's Star Wars: The Rise of Skywalker.
  • Not only did No Way Home's first trailer shatter the record for most views in its first 24 hours, beating Endgame's old record by more than 65 million views, it nearly tripled the output of Spider-Man: Far From Home's 135 million views in the same timeframe.
  • While December used to be known more for longer box office runs and never for nine-digit opening weekend figures, the Star Wars franchise turned that narrative around with all four of its December releases between 2015 and 2019, each opening between $155 million (Rogue One) and $248 million (The Force Awakens).

CONS:

  • Due to audiences not going out to movies as often this year during the pandemic, forecasts such as this are quite volatile considering how difficult it is to track interest in films versus intent to buy tickets. 
  • Star Tom Holland has indicated that this movie will feature a darker story and tone, which could have an impact on staying power and reception from audiences. Marvel is typically known for bringing fun crowd-pleasures, no matter how mature some of the material in its movies is.

As things are currently set, Spider-Man: No Way Home is in range to have not only the biggest opening weekend of a 2021 release but also the largest domestic opening of any Spider-Man movie ever, surpassing the $151 million return for Spider-Man 3. The opening weekend totals for the previous movies from Sam Raimi, Marc Webb, and Jon Watts are all listed chronologically below:

  • Spider-Man (2002): $115M
  • Spider-Man 2 (2004): $88M
  • Spider-Man 3 (2007): $151M
  • The Amazing Spider-Man (2012): $62M (unique 4th of July weekend release)
  • The Amazing Spider-Man 2 (2014): $91M
  • Spider-Man: Homecoming (2017): $117M
  • Spider-Man: Far From Home (2019): $93M (unique 4th of July weekend release)

Spider-Man 3 On Its Way to a Huge Year

Considering the teases that have been laid out for the past year regarding Spider-Man: No Way Home, it was expected to be the highest-grossing movie of 2021 likely by a wide margin. All that hype, plus an exclusive theatrical release for the movie rather than a dual streaming debut, can only mean that its financial returns should be close to as big as the actual story coming to life.

Thus far, Marvel Studios has enjoyed an impressive theatrical run with three of the top four opening weekends of 2021, all of them only trailing Venom: Let There Be Carnage in its theaters-only debut. Even looking at how the MCU took nearly two years to return in theaters, none of those first three movies had anything close to the excitement that No Way Home has already built.

Of course, these projections will likely become clearer when tickets for Spider-Man: No Way Home officially become available, which will be almost three weeks until No Way Home opens in theaters. Should the threequel's box office returns come anywhere close to these projected numbers, it will be well on its way to its expected status as the biggest movie of the year.

Spider-Man: No Way Home will debut in theaters on December 17, 2021. Tickets will be available for sale on November 29.

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