Could Fast X be destined for failure after using a record-breaking budget for its production?
Fast and Furious 10 looks to add another thrilling chapter to the Fast Saga as Vin Diesel teams up with an impressive round of big-name stars, including superhero mainstays Brie Larson and Jason Momoa amongst others.
Fans have already gotten a taste of the action before Fast and Furious 10's release thanks to a clip featuring Momoa hitting the road opposite John Cena, which is sure to be one of many sensational speedy sequences in this new story.
Fast & Furious 10's Record-Shattering Budget
Fast X had a record-breaking budget of $340 million (via The Wrap), which will make it incredibly difficult for Universal Pictures to turn a profit on this speed-induced sequel.
That price tag far exceeds the budget for any of the nine previous Fast movies, the closest one being 2017's The Fate of the Furious, which had a budget of $250 million.
On top of that, a $340 million price tag would give Fast X the eighth-highest budget in movie history, just ahead of 2018's Avengers: Infinity War ($325 million) and just behind 2022's Avatar: The Way of Water ($350 million).
For Fast & Furious 10 to make a profit, according to this report, it will have to reach anywhere from $800 million to $850 million in theatrical revenue alone.
As a comparison, 2021's F9 finished its theatrical run with only $726 million in box office revenue. However, that movie came out smack-dab in the middle of the COVID-19 pandemic, with theaters being much more popular two years later.
While only two Fast and Furious movies have broken $800 million in revenue, the two that did well exceeded that total with Furious 7 grossing $1.51 billion worldwide and The Fate of the Furious grossing $1.24 billion.
Even those totals don't guarantee huge profits, however, as Deadline reported that Furious 7 only earned a $354 million profit after the movie's theatrical run.
For Fast & Furious 10, Box Office Pro is projecting for the movie to make about $141 million-$181 million at the domestic box office. Even if it reaches the high end of that projection, it would rank as the fifth-highest-grossing movie domestically in the entire Fast franchise.
During its Thursday night previews, via Deadline, Fast X earned $7.5 million domestically along with $68.7 million at the international box office. This included a $26.3 million haul in China alone, with Friday's estimates raising that number to about $37 million.
Will Fast X Be a Box Office Failure?
To put it bluntly, it's tough to imagine that Fast and Furious 10 will reach a box office goal that only two of the first nine movies have over the past 22 years.
Looking at last year, only six blockbusters crossed the $800 million threshold, including Doctor Strange in the Multiverse of Madness, Top Gun: Maverick, and James Cameron's record-shattering efforts on Avatar 2.
This year, the only movie to even make at least $600 million worldwide thus far has been The Super Mario Bros. Movie at $1.2 billion, although James Gunn's Guardians of the Galaxy Vol. 3 has a real shot of crossing that threshold as well.
For the Fast franchise on its own, this certainly isn't the way Vin Diesel and his street-racing family want to go out, especially with rumors hinting that Fast 10 and Fast 11 will become a trilogy with an eventual Fast 12.
The mixed early reviews for this movie are unlikely to increase fan interest any further, which could be an early sign that Fast & Furious 10 is headed for some kind of failure financially.
While anything is possible once this new outing hits the big screen, fans appear to be ready for the saga to cross the finish line, which could be further confirmed if these box office numbers don't meet expectations.
Fast X will arrive in theaters on Friday, May 19.
