The long-term box office performance of Captain America: Brave New World has been underwhelming, but that doesn't mean it won't be profitable.
Since soaring onto the big screen on Valentine's Day this year, Anthony Mackie's first headlined MCU film, Captain America: Brave New World, hasn't left much of an impact on international audiences.
As most box office analysis goes, this is (of course) relative, as Captain America 4 is the highest-earning American-made film of 2024 thus far. The issue is that Marvel Studios used to be the pinnacle of blockbuster success, with its MCU becoming (by far) the most successful Hollywood franchise of all time.
With some films in the 2020s teetering on success, and The Marvels completely bursting its bubble, the jury is still out on the success level of Captain America 4.
Final Captain America: Brave New World Box Office Projections
The good news is Captain America: Brave New World officially surpassed Captain America: The First Avenger at the worldwide box office, reaching $370.8 million globally. However, it remains far from the highs of The Winter Soldier ($714.4 million) and Civil War ($1.15 billion), reflecting the current status of MCU hits and misses.
Box office insider Luiz Fernando recently noted a $405 million and $440 million worldwide projection for Captain America 4's total.
The film has notably not been an international success; for comparison, 2021's Shang-Chi grossed $207.7 million outside of North America. However, that movie did not even release in China; yet, Captain America 4—with a wider international reach—only earned $194.2 million so far in those markets.
This is pretty uninspiring considering the lack of competition right now in movie theaters. To that same effect, Brave New World benefitted greatly from four straight weeks of showing on Premium Large Formats like IMAX and still been widely released by Disney (3,480 domestic theaters in its third weekend).
Now, more competition is entering the marketplace, including Disney's own Snow White on March 21, which will effectively conclude Captain America 4's wide distribution run (shifting attention to its eventual Disney+ streaming release).
The fact of the matter is that Brave New World has not excited audiences, with lukewarm reactions from fans, leading to its lower-tier MCU performance. For it to hit anywhere near $440 million worldwide, it will need a boost that is hitherto undreamt of at the 2025 box office.
Will Captain America 4 Make Disney Money?
It is no secret that Marvel Studios, once dominant at the box office, has struggled in recent years due to oversaturation and declining audience interest.
While that did not impact divisive films like Thor: Love and Thunder and Doctor Strange in the Multiverse of Madness, other post-Avengers: Endgame films have lost Disney money.
Three Marvel movies suffered significant financial losses (per Forbes), with The Marvels being the biggest flop.
The film earned $206.1 million at the box office, but with Disney typically receiving around 50% of those earnings, the studio's share was only about $103.05 million. Given its hefty $221.7 million production cost, this resulted in an estimated loss of $118.6 million.
The outlet also reported that Black Widow, Eternals, and Ant-Man and the Wasp: Quantumania all lost Disney money based on their theatrical performance.
So, what does this mean for Captain America: Brave New World?
Captain America 4 is set to earn around the same amount as Eternals, which was reportedly $20 million more expensive to produce. The total marketing costs are unclear, but Marvel did not hold back from promoting Harrison Ford's Red Hulk as much as possible.
Given these thin margins, it seems more likely than now that Brave New World will lose Disney money, based on its box office results.
However, when factoring in long-term licensing, digital sales, merchandise, and toys, Captain America 4 will likely turn a profit for Disney. The Marvel machine is hard to stop fully, even if its box office results aren't consistently what they used to be.
Captain America: Brave New World is still playing in theaters. For more on the future of the MCU, check out the full list of Marvel Studios films coming soon.
