James Cameron’s return to Pandora officially solidified the Avatar franchise as a holiday powerhouse. While much of the pre-release conversation focused on whether the threequel could live up to its predecessors, the latest numbers from the domestic charts tell a story of consistent, undeniable dominance. By leading the charge this holiday, Avatar: Fire and Ash entered an elite circle of film franchises that don't just visit the Christmas box office; they own it.
Avatar: Fire and Ash dominated Christmas Day with a $24 million domestic haul. While this figure is a slight step back from the $29.1 million earned by The Way of Water in 2022, it was more than enough to crush the competition, including newcomers like A24’s Marty Supreme and Sony’s Anaconda.
This victory marks the second time the Avatar franchise led the Christmas Day box office, placing it in a rare category of sequels that have repeatedly claimed the holiday crown. With minimal daily drop-offs and strong tracking for its second weekend, the James Cameron effect is once again proving that Pandora is the ultimate destination for holiday moviegoers.
Movie Franchises That Have Dominated the Christmas Box Office
Star Wars
For decades, Star Wars has been the undisputed king of the holiday season. Its dominance reached its peak during the Disney sequel era, where the galaxy far, far away claimed the Christmas Day top spot four times in five years. This run began with The Force Awakens in 2015, which set a nearly untouchable record on Christmas Day of $49.3 million. It continued with Rogue One ($25.8M) in 2016, The Last Jedi ($27.4M) in 2017, and concluded with The Rise of Skywalker ($32.1M) in 2019.
The franchise's success is rooted in its appeal across multiple generations. For many families, seeing a Star Wars film became as much a part of the holiday tradition as opening gifts. The sheer scale of these films demanded a theatrical experience, and Disney’s marketing capitalized on the event nature of these releases. Even with the franchise currently on a theatrical hiatus, its shadow looms large over the holiday season.
The Lord of the Rings
Peter Jackson’s The Lord of the Rings trilogy essentially pioneered the modern December event film strategy. Released annually between 2001 and 2003, these films turned Middle-earth into a seasonal home for global audiences. The trilogy's run culminated in 2003 with The Return of the King, which led the Christmas Day box office with a staggering $13.9 million.
At the time, these numbers were revolutionary for the holiday. The Lord of the Rings succeeded because it offered a level of immersive world-building that had rarely been seen on screen. Despite runtimes exceeding three hours, the films became the default choice for Christmas outings. Excitingly, The Lord of the Rings franchise is set to return soon.
The Hobbit
A decade after the original trilogy, Peter Jackson returned to Middle-earth, and the box office magic remained intact. The Hobbit trilogy, comprising An Unexpected Journey, The Desolation of Smaug, and The Battle of the Five Armies, maintained a stranglehold on the December corridor from 2012 to 2014. The Desolation of Smaug famously led the 2013 Christmas Day charts with $9.3 million, fending off a crowded field that included Frozen and Anchorman 2.
The Hobbit films benefited from the legacy effect of their predecessors. Even as critical reception became more mixed, the brand was so synonymous with the holidays that it remained the default choice for casual moviegoers. The franchise's consistent performance across two different decades cemented Middle-earth as a key fixture of the Christmas movie landscape, a feat few IPs have replicated.
Aquaman
While the superhero genre usually prefers the competitive summer window, the Aquaman franchise found a unique sanctuary in the December corridor. Both the original 2018 film and its 2023 sequel, Aquaman and the Lost Kingdom, capitalized on the holiday audience's hunger for visual spectacle. The first Aquaman led the 2018 Christmas Day box office with a massive $21.9 million, outperforming a crowded field that included Mary Poppins Returns.
In 2023, Aquaman and the Lost Kingdom continued the franchise's streak of leading the Christmas week slate, securing the top spot for its opening weekend. However, the sequel’s performance was notably muted compared to its predecessor's breakout success, opening to a much lower overall gross despite a relative lack of direct competition. While both films were holiday chart-toppers, the first film was a genuine cultural event, whereas the second merely managed to win a quieter box office frame.
Can Avatar: Fire and Ash Replicate Its Franchise’s $2 Billion Box Office Standard?
The Avatar brand has long been synonymous with the $2 billion milestone, a rarified air that James Cameron’s first two entries inhabited with ease. As Fire and Ash moves through its second week of release, the industry is closely watching to see if the threequel can maintain that gold standard. As of writing, the film has amassed a global total of $544.3 million, with $153.7 million coming from domestic screens and a massive $390.6 million from international territories.
While these numbers are objectively massive, already ranking the film as the 11th highest-grossing release of 2025 in just one week, reaching the $2 billion feat remains a daunting challenge. The film’s domestic opening of $88 million was a 35% decline from The Way of Water, suggesting that the franchise's hold on audiences has weakened slightly.
Despite the massive hurdle Fire and Ash has to live up to the standard set by the earlier releases, the Cameron legs are in full effect. The film performed significantly well on Christmas Day and is seeing holdover percentages that far outpace the average blockbuster. To reach $2 billion, Fire and Ash would need to display historic longevity similar to the 2009 original. Reports project a final global tally between $1.6 billion and $1.8 billion for the film. While that would technically be a decline for this specific franchise, it would still cement the film as a top-10 all-time grosser and the undisputed #1 Hollywood film of 2025.
Geraldo Amartey is a writer at The Direct. He joined the team in 2025, bringing with him four years of experience covering entertainment news, pop culture, and fan-favorite franchises for sites like YEN, Briefly and Tuko.
