Spider-Man: Brand New Day doesn't need to share the spotlight this summer, and that alone gives it a leg up on Avengers: Doomsday. Both films are gearing up to be two of 2026's biggest box office draws, with Brand New Day swinging into theaters on July 31 and Doomsday arriving on December 18. 2026 has already delivered big wins for family fare like Toy Story 5 and sci-fi hits like Project Hail Mary, but the first comic book movie struggled, with Supergirl failing to sustain the Superman momentum. Brand New Day is expected to turn that narrative around for the genre, with new tracking pointing toward a record-breaking performance.
Per Box Office Theory, Spider-Man: Brand New Day is tracking to open between $212 million and $255 million domestically. A number in that range would make the fourth outing for Peter Parker (Tom Holland) the seventh MCU movie ever to cross $200 million on an opening weekend, landing behind No Way Home's $260 million launch and ahead of Deadpool & Wolverine's $211 million start.
Global tracking has climbed too, with some estimates now pointing to a worldwide opening near $550 million, which would rank among the biggest superhero movie debuts.
Brand New Day also has something No Way Home never got: a confirmed release in China. That film made $1.92 billion worldwide without a single ticket sold there, after Sony declined to cut scenes involving the Statue of Liberty, and the movie skipped the market entirely. Goodbye, Lady Liberty, hello, dollar signs.
None of that happens without a clear runway, and Brand New Day has one, which is a clear advantage over its fellow MCU release this year: Avengers: Doomsday.
Minions & Monsters has already hit theaters, opening to a franchise-low five-day total, and it'll be well into its theatrical run by the time Spidey arrives. Moana's live-action remake lands July 10, but its tracking has slipped to $60-$70 million, nothing too worrying three weeks before Brand New Day's release.
Then comes The Odyssey on July 17, Christopher Nolan's true summer heavyweight, also starring Holland. But Brand New Day doesn't open until the epic's third weekend, well past its front-loaded rush, and a three-hour R-rated adventure isn't fighting a Marvel blockbuster for the exact same audience anyway.
In reality, there's nothing major releasing the immediate week before Brand New Day hits theaters, and no movie will cut into its business for the rest of August either.
The one real cost is IMAX. The Odyssey has locked up the popular format nationwide from July 17 through mid-August, so Brand New Day won't have a single domestic IMAX screen on opening weekend, the same fate waiting for Avengers: Doomsday in December. Sony still has seven other theatrical formats to lean on, including a new ScreenX variant built specifically for this film.
Avengers: Doomsday's Updated Box Office Projections
Heading into 2026, Avengers: Doomsday felt like a lock to finish the year as the top earner. Six months later, and the iron grip of the MCU has never seemed more fallible.
Disney and Warner Bros. have made clear that neither side is moving off December 18, so the showdown, "Dunesday," is happening, with Avengers: Doomsday and Dune: Part Three opening the same weekend.
Also, when Jumanji: Open World jumped from December 11 to Christmas Day, many believed that Doomsday would move up to avoid the head-to-head battle with Dune 3, but now it's turned into a two-week gauntlet to end the calendar year.
The IMAX math makes it worse. Dune: Part Three locked in December 18 first and claimed the format exclusively for three straight weeks, leaving Doomsday shut out domestically. Disney's answer is Infinity Vision, a new certification (all for the sake of marketing) for premium large-format (PLF) screens meant to steer audiences toward the best non-IMAX auditoriums available.
The program gets its first real run in September, when Avengers: Endgame returns to theaters as Endgame Encore, before carrying Doomsday through its own IMAX-less opening weekend in December.
There's also a growing argument that Spider-Man, not the Avengers, is now 2026's safer box office bet. That idea is being held up after Marvel Studios' 2025 slate wasn't too commercially promising, yet all those characters are joining forces in Doomsday. The Fantastic Four: First Steps, Captain America: Brave New World, and Thunderbolts* all underwhelmed at the box office, and every one of those characters is walking straight into Doomsday's roster this December.
However, before burying the Avengers and Robert Downey Jr. alive, a trip down memory lane might calm some concerns. The Avengers made $1.5 billion in 2012, Age of Ultron made $1.4 billion, Infinity War crossed $2 billion, and Endgame topped out at $2.79 billion. A $2 billion finish for Doomsday would be a genuine shock in this climate, but $1.4 billion or more still feels well within reach.
Deadpool & Wolverine cleared $1.3 billion in 2024, and it would be stunning to watch a full Avengers ensemble, with the X-Men, Fantastic Four, Doctor Doom, and the Russo Brothers back in the fold, finish two years later with less than that.
What's most telling is that Brand New Day's global projections are now seemingly tracking in line with Doomsday's, and Doomsday's run will be much more of a fight than Spider-Man's open roads to box-office success.
