A report suggested the expected release date of Grand Theft Auto VI (GTA 6) was delayed from initial projections.
After more than a decade since GTA 5, Rockstar Games finally pulled the curtain back on the studio's next entry into the beloved open-world crime franchise, releasing a debut trailer in December 2023 with a nebulous release window of 2025.
While a specific release date has yet to be announced, it has been assumed the game would come sometime before the end of March 2025 thanks to earnings projections from Rockstar's parent company Take-Two Interactive (read more about those projections here).
GTA Release Likely Coming Later Than Expected
According to new info, GTA 6 could be released later than was initially expected by fans.
The hotly anticipated open-world title has seemingly been delayed from fiscal year 2025 to fiscal year 2026 for Rockstar Games' parent company Take-Two Interactive.
A new memo titled "$7 Billion Means No GTA in FY:25" from Wedbush Securities analysts Nick McKay and Michael Pachter was sent to investors of the video game publishing giant, alluding to comments from Take-Two CFO Lainie Goldstein on a recent earnings call where projections for the upcoming year were quoted at "a little above $7 billion [in] net bookings:"
"At this time, the number is tracking a little above $7 billion for net bookings for the year and given the typical shifts and tweaks that occur in our forecasting process. And this amount is still huge growth over this year. And our pipeline is groundbreaking for next year and beyond, and our teams are making excellent progress on game development."
This $7 billion number is $1 billion less than projections for the same period from May 2023.
Goldstein cited this drop in expected net booking revenue to "changes in the release schedule," noting they still "expect to see growth in fiscal year '26 over '25:"
"So, for fiscal year ‘25, as I mentioned, it’s really driven by changes in the release schedule. And obviously, that will move some of the titles out into years going forward because the lifetime value of our portfolio hasn’t changed. So, we should – we do expect to see growth in fiscal year ‘26 over ‘25, so that hasn’t changed."
While the Take-Two executive does not call out GTA 6 specifically, only a select few names in gaming could spell the kind of $1 billion shift in things that Goldstein described, and Grand Theft Auto is one of them.
In McKay and Pachter's memo sent to Take-Two investors, the analysts surmised this must mean "GTA VI has slipped out of FY:25:"
"We can only surmise that 'GTA VI' has slipped out of FY:25, in-line with our earlier expectation. Management had said that next year’s bookings number will be just over $7 billion, a far cry from its initial comments of $8 billion in May, and its first revision of just under $8 billion in November."
However, with that said, they reiterated, "We have no reason to believe the game has slipped out of calendar 2025:"
"The drop makes us almost certain that 'GTA VI' will not be releasing next FY. With that said, we have no reason to believe the game has slipped out of calendar 2025, but it is reasonable to assume that it will launch later in the year."
When Will GTA 6 Be Released?
With these new projections in mind, one can start to predict when GTA 6 will eventually come to PlayStation 5 and Xbox Series X/S.
Some previously had the title pegged for a February or March 2025 release, but that does not look like it will happen.
As explained by Wedbush Securities analysts Nick McKay and Michael Pachter in a memo sent to investors, just because GTA 6 will not hit fiscal year 2025 does not mean it will miss 2025 entirely.
As of late, Rockstar Games has liked to bring out its biggest and brightest titles later in the year.
GTA V was released on PS3/Xbox 360 on September 17, 2013, and PS4/Xbox One on November 18, 2014. Red Dead Redemption 2 followed suit, coming to PS4/Xbox One on October 26, 2018. That means a fall 2025 release date for GTA 6 seems highly likely.
While a September release date for GTA 5 worked for Rockstar, typically studios like to put out their heaviest hitters between October 1 and November 15.
This allows ample time for stock to be sold leading into Black Friday and through the holiday season.
While picking an exact date is a fool's errand at this point, a GTA 6 release sometime in mid-October or early November 2025 feels like a pretty good bet.
Grand Theft Auto 6 is set to release on PlayStation 5 and Xbox Series X/S sometime in 2025.
Read more about GTA 6:
This GTA 6 Video Spoils the Game's Twist Ending, According to Some Fans
GTA 6 Price: How Much Will It Cost to Pre-Order the New Grand Theft Auto?
GTA 6 Controversy Explained: Why Some Fans Are Angry With the New Game
