Spider-Man: Brand New Day is tracking to outgross the MCU's last three movies combined at the global box office. Marvel Studios endured a string of box-office disappointments in 2025 as Phase 5 concluded with Captain America: Brave New World and Thunderbolts*, before finally getting Phase 6 underway with The Fantastic Four: First Steps. The three MCU blockbusters' box office gross totaled to $1.32 billion, just under the $1.34 billion that Deadpool & Wolverine earned single-handedly in the previous year:
- Marvel Studios' 2025 Box Office Gross - $1,319,397,222
- Captain America: Brave New World - $415,101,577
- Thunderbolts* - $382,436,917
- The Fantastic Four: First Steps - $521,858,728
The MCU is in desperate need of a box office win, as Captain America: Brave New World and Thunderbolts* are believed to have lost money, while The Fantastic Four: First Steps may have turned a small profit. Regardless, it's safe to say that Marvel Studios left 2025 with a box-office deficit that it hopes to recoup this year with Spider-Man: Brand New Day and Avengers: Doomsday.
Fortunately, Brand New Day is tracking to be a major box-office win, albeit one split between Marvel Studios and Sony Pictures. Estimates from Box Office Theory (BOT) have the web-slinger returning to theaters with a $212-255 million domestic opening and a forecast finish of $475-655 million.
When it came to No Way Home, 42.1% of its unprecedented $1.91 billion worldwide gross came from domestic audiences. If Spider-Man: Brand New Day abides by the same multiplier, and its domestic total lands in the middle of BOT's estimate, around $570 million, it should finish with $1.35 billion worldwide, more than all of Marvel Studios' 2025 blockbusters combined.
But there is reason to believe the overseas figure could go even higher, as Brand New Day has one thing that No Way Home didn't: a Chinese release. The Asian market can greatly boost Western flicks, such as Zootopia 2, which grossed $651.4 millon in China, the highest-ever for a Hollywood movie in the region.
According to data from Global Box Office, Brand New Day's pre-sales are tracking very well in China, higher than any other superhero movie since 2019's Avengers: Endgame, and it could even open as high as $100 million. That is almost four times the $25.4 million that the MCU's last four movies collectively opened to in China. Captain America 4 launched in China with $10.5 million, Thunderbolts* with $10.4 million, and The Fantastic Four with just $4.5 million.
Beyond starring one of the world's big three superheroes (Batman, Superman, and Spider-Man), Brand New Day has a major leg-up on its MCU predecessors due to its extreme proximity to an Avengers blockbuster. In fact, as stated by EmpireCity Box Office, Avengers: Doomsday's recent trailer release prompted a "massive spike in Spider-Man: Brand New Day sales yesterday."
Updated tracking from Global Box Office declared that Brand New Day is projected to open even higher domestically after the spike, around $260-300 million. That puts it on track to surpass No Way Home's astonishing $260.1 million domestic opening, albeit below Avengers: Endgame's $375.12 million.
Just as Doomsday has reportedly boosted Brand New Day, the summer blockbuster may be able to return the favor. If the latest Spider-Man flick attracts a massive audience, receives stellar word of mouth, and sets up the next Avengers ensemble, it could build the momentum the MCU has been sorely lacking in recent years and drive interest in the next crossover to new heights.
How Marvel Studios Could Have Avoided 2025's Triple Box Office Let-Down
Marvel Studios began 2025 with disappointment as Captain America: Brave New World brought in just $415.1 million on a $180 million budget. Following the usual Hollywood rule of a movie requiring 2.5 times production budget to start turning profit, Brave New World may have lost Disney over $30 million, partly because its costs were inflated by extensive reshoots in 2024.
A fourth installment in a highly successful franchise like Captain America that trades out its main protagonist was always going to be a tough sell, so Brave New World needed to be great in order to succeed, and it simply wasn't.
It was as clear as a summer's day that Brave New World endured major changes from reshoots and post-production, resulting in a rather disjointed story. Simply put, Marvel Studios should have tightened up Captain America 4's script much earlier on, and perhaps followed DC Studios CEO James Gunn's biggest rule.
Arguably, the greatest tragedy of Marvel Studios' 2025 losing streak was Thunderbolts*, which bombed at the box office, grossing just $382.4 million worldwide on an $180 million budget. That may have prompted losses of over $60 million ahead of the New Avengers' major role in Avengers: Doomsday.
Unfortunately, Thunderbolts* proved that the MCU's box-office struggles run deeper than quality and word of mouth. The anti-hero ensemble was hailed as one of Marvel Studios' best movies ever, with an all-star cast colliding from multiple projects, a uniquely deep exploration of mental health, and a long-awaited MCU addition in Sentry, but it wasn't enough to save it at the box office.
It's tough to say how Thunderbolts* could have been saved, given that it delivered in terms of quality and had a bold A24-esque marketing campaign. Instead, Thunderbolts* was likely doomed from the get-go, as a movie centered around usually supporting characters, some of whom originated on Disney+, was always going to be a hard sell at a time when interest in the MCU had hit a lull.
There was a sense of optimism in the MCU fandom moving into The Fantastic Four: First Steps, as Thunderbolts* had just been hailed as a masterpiece. That goodwill, combined with excitement to see Marvel's First Family join the MCU, was enough to turn The Fantastic Four into 2025's only profitable movie, earning $521.86 million worldwide on a $181 million budget (after U.K. tax breaks).
For the most part, The Fantastic Four was well received, earning praise for its stunning sci-fi visuals, casting of Marvel's First Family, and portrayal of Galactus. The movie ultimately suffered due to growing MCU fatigue and competition from James Gunn's Superman, which took flight just two weeks prior.
The Fantastic Four could have benefited from painting itself as a more integral piece of the Avengers: Doomsday puzzle by introducing Robert Downey Jr.'s Doctor Doom ahead of the 2026 event. Then again, perhaps First Steps was always doomed to stumble a little due to the MCU's larger problems.
Regardless, there are clear signs that the MCU is on the up-and-up once again, as excitement for the franchise in 2026 may be its highest since Avengers: Endgame. If Marvel Studios plays its cards right throughout Phase 6, the momentum of Spider-Man: Brand New Day along with two Avengers movies hitting theaters in back-to-back years could set it up to hit the ground running with Phase 7 and major event movies like X-Men and Black Panther 3.
